Early DGM/GTC/RTR Impressions & Three Colour Drafting Strategy

Ok, I’ll admit it, I’m pretty fascinated about the Dragon’s Maze/Gatecrash/Return to Ravnica draft format. It’s incredibly deep, quite thoughtful, and relatively well balanced.

The pack flow makes perfect sense once you understand it. I’ve put together a little ‘cheat sheet’ to help people figure out what’s happening in the draft, as demonstrated below.

I don’t believe it makes sense to try to force two colours, as it means in one of the packs you’re effectively drafting the mono-coloured cards, and the mono-coloured cards are simply of lesser power than the gold cards. Why would you want to hamstring yourself like that?

In my mind, the best strategy is to either see what three colours are strongest in your first pack and draft along those lines, or to force one of the better three-colour combinations from the start.

Which begs the question, what are the best three-colour combinations to force?

There are 10 three-colour combinations, five of which are drafted in a 3-2-1 sequence (three guilds in the first pack, two in the second, one in the third) and five of which are drafted in a 3-1-2 sequence, as demonstrated above. Each of the three colour combinations lands with a different set of keywords and synergies. I’ve outlined those, and my impression of them, in the graphic below.

From what I can tell so far – and I have not had a great deal of experience beyond anyone else – the three-colour cobminations in the 3-2-1 sequence are stronger than those in the 3-1-2 sequence. In addition, there are two guilds in particular where the reward is higher for forcing those colours early in DGM and GTC, and two more guilds that generally lead to positive results.

Part of the reason I prefer the 3-2-1 sequence to the 3-1-2 sequence is that the mono-coloured cards in RTR are(generally) stronger than those in GTC (though there are exactly the same number). Remember the RTR mono-coloured cards? In black alone you had Stab Wound, Thrill-Kill Assassin, Ultimate Price, Dead Reveler, Desecration Demon and… oh that’s right, Pack Rat.

Importantly, the format will eventually be seen as defined by its two-for-ones, of which there are many (Far/Away, Scab-Clan Giant, Ubul Sar Gatekeepers, etc). This should be brought to mind whenever thinking about the draft format.

Let’s start with the two most highly rewarding guilds to draft in Packs 1 & 2: Orzhov and Boros. These two guilds have access to the most of the premium removal, some of the most absurd bombs, and generally high-quality commons and uncommons.

Drafting Orzhov in the first pack should lead down one of two paths; either supplementing with Boros/Rackos if going aggressive, or Dimir/Azorius if going disruptive/evasive. Both these paths will leade to very good results, as both those three-colour combinations are two of the three that I currently consider ‘the best’. Both these paths give you some draft freedom in the second pack as you are still picking up two different guilds. The third pack you’ll either settle on Rakdos or Azorious. Rakdos and Selesnya were the premium guilds in raw Return to Ravnica, but I think populate suffers with the loss of good token makers in the Gatecrash pack. The power of Unleash, however, isn’t hurt by absence of other Unleash creatures, so Rakdos’ power level is maintained.

Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos is the most aggressive deck in the format. It includes creatures with excellent CMC to Power ratios, the most efficient removal, and the most absurd bombs (a snapshot: Aurelia, the Warleader, Obzedat, Ghost Council, Blood Baron of Vizkopa, Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch, Master of Cruelties, Sire of Insanity, Tajic, Blade of the Legion, Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts, Angel of Serenity, Angelic Skirmisher, Assemble the Legion, Boros Battleshaper, Boros Reckoner, Deathpact Angel, Firemane Avenger, etc etc… I mean it, etc, etc… like Mizzium Mortars, Pack Rat, it just keeps going…). With three packs you get a very real chance of drafting a deck capable of simply burning your opponent out, especially when combined with Extort. Between the early fast rush, the late game bombs, the excellent removal, and the abilty to win any race through Extort, Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos is probably the best deck in the format.

If you’re comfortable in the control space then Orzhov / Dimir / Azorius is for you, being able to pick up some of the best removal/disruption in the format, while building an excellent flash/counterspell/removal shell (think Deputy of Acquittals/Hussar Patrol/Skyline Predator/Counterspells) makes the Esper space very powerful. Cards such as Inspiration help you have something to do while holding up counterspell mana, and once-underpowered utility creatures such as Bane Alley Broker get a lot better in the shell.

Drafting Boros either leads to the Orzhov/Rakdos path I’ve already covered, or the powerful Boros / Gruul / Selesnya trio, the third of the what I currently consider the best three-colour combinations. Again, this is a 3-2-1 path where, knowing you’ll end up in Selesnya, cards such as Bronzebeak Moa and Trostani’s Summoner gain in value (noting that the Summoner is a powerful Battalion enabler). The downside of throwing away creatures on Bloodrush is negated by the fact you’re gaining extra tokens over time through populate, and your generally-bigger creatures helps turn on Battalion. The ability to also protect your Battalion through Bloodrush, or have creatures to trigger Battalion through Populate is also highly synergistic.

However, both Orzhov and Boros can lead down uncomfortable paths. For Orzhov this is Junk, where you end up with Orzhov / Golgari / Selesnya, which is relively anti-syneristic. You have a lot of mana sinks, none of which work terribly well together. Extort wants spells, and spending mana to Populate or Scavenge doesn’t help the trigger. There is some synergy between having getting creatures to Scavange onto with Populate, but the mana costs involved are rather exhorbitant, and you’d probably rather just have another creature anyway.

Meanwhile Boros can lead to Boros / Azorius / Izzet, which is an Aggro Control deck that ends up highly reliant on instants and sorciers, as place that Boros doesn’t want to be, as it relies heavily on creatures. Izzet creatures don’t generally both attack and play creatures at the same time (see Frostburn Weird, Nivix Cyclops, Aetherling, Fluxcharger, etc). Battalion is happy to work with Azorious’s evasive flyers, but overall the trio feel like they are pulling against each other. I’ll note here that both Orzhov / Golgari / Selesnya and Boros / Azorius / Izzet are 3-1-2 decks.

An alternate strategy is to cast your lot with Simic. Each of the three Simic strategies are relatively solid affairs. My prefer choice would be Simic / Gruul / Izzet rooted firmly in Ramp. Both the Gruul and Izzet creatures are fairly reliable at triggering Evolve, and the ability to ramp helps to find the mana for maximising Overload effects. With an early rush, and some of the biggest creatures on the board, it doesn’t matter whether your finisher is a Mizzium Mortars, Teleportal, Blusterquall or Dragonshift, the effect is the same: your opponent loses. This is another 3-2-1 path.

Simic can also head down the Simic / Selesnya / Azorious path. Although it’s a 3-1-2 path, it can work as the Simic cards in Gatecrash are generally strong enough to support it. The advantages are you have access to populate in order to regularly trigger Evolve, especially in battle. However you need the right Populate cards to do it – Seller of Songbirds isn’t going to cut it. Nor, generally, will the Azorius cards, though there is some utility in being able to Evolve with a flash creature (one imagines flashing in and out a Deputy of Acquittals to keep the Evolve triggers coming).

The third Simic path is Simic / Dimir / Golgari, which opens the path to decent removal and a solid ‘+1/+1 counters matter’ theme. The addition of Dimir’s evasive creatures means you have the opportunity to draft an entirely unblockable deck, including Sewer Shambler, Woodlot Crawler, AEtherling, Elusive Krasis, Soulsworn Spirit, Deathcult Rogue, Spire Tracer, which frankly sounds like an utter nightmare to play against. Combine that with some advantage from the +1/+1 counters floating around and you end up with a deck with a lot of inevitability.

That leaves two other decks. The penultimate deck is Gruul / Rakdos / Golgari, which I will dub “Team Never-Block”. You get some excellent aggressive starts that are backed up by Bloodrush and late-game Scavenge. You are really of a one-track mind with this deck, “attack”. Should you ever have to slow down, you can’t expect to have that many evasive creatures to push through. This is tempered a little by the best access to deathtouch to push through damage, or falling back on trading/scavenge. You also have some premium removal with Putrefy, red’s multitude of burn spells, and the black standards such as Grisly Spectacle and Ultimate Price. It’s a little hard to draft, being a 3-1-2 path, but probably worth attempting.

The last deck is a hot mess, Dimir / Izzet / Rakdos. It’s a deck that doesn’t know what it wants to be doing. You’d think that cipher would have a lot of synergy with Izzet, but the timing of the triggers is all wrong. Izzet wants to trigger before you hit your opponent, not after, which ends up with disappointing results. Meanwhile Rakdos, which has been desperate to just attack attack attack isn’t getting much support other than some good removal – the best being Far/Away and Turn/Burn. Maybe – just maybe – those two cards alone are enough to save the combination, but don’t think anyone’s going to be passing them to you that often. This is the worst of the worst path, a 3-1-2 that ends up with a real dog’s breakfast.

So that’s my early-impression breakdown of the 10 three-colour guild combinations. I don’t think it’s advisable to push a two-colour combination across all three packs, as you’re ultimately missing out on high-value cards for the sake of mana consistency, and I don’t think the packs are deep enough to support having a strong enough curve to make that worthwile.

My last note is on one of the first things I mentioned, about the format being defined by its two-for-ones. I think that when drafting you should take not of you ability to maximise your two-for-ones. Orzhov / Dimir / Azorius, for instance, has access to Deputy of Acquittals, which can help you gain extra value from your Sin Collectors & Ubul Sar Gatekeepers, while also blanking your opponents’ removal. At common and uncommon, Boros / Gruul / Selesnya has access Blaze Commando, Rootborn Defenses and populate cards such as Scab-Clan Giant, Sunhome Guildmage & Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage to generate incremental advantage over time. When you can’t just draft Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos and run your opponent over, the ability to survive the early game and then build advantage over time is critical. In many ways, DGM/GTC/RTR is going to a battle of attrition and the deck that knows how it’s going to build an advantage will have various benefits over one that doesn’t.

I’ll come back to visit all this as the format becomes more clearly defined, if nothing else than to figure out where I went wrong. For instance, I probably underestimate Grixis’ ability to thrive in a format insisting on value plays. The fun will be finding out just how wrong I got it. Good luck out there!

Deadpool Drafting

I’ve been thinking lately about draft formats (ie 8-man, Rochester, Rooster, etc). I’ve never tried to invent a draft format before, but I’ve started putting one together. I think it’s going to be pretty interesting; but then I thought Rakdos would be a bust at the RTR Pre-release, so my opinion only gets you so far.

I call this draft format “Deadpool”. I think the format would work best between 2-3 players. I’m not sure how well 4 players would work.

1. Take your pool of cards (whatever they might be – cube, stack of cracked packs, etc) and shuffle into one large deck without looking at them.
2. Choose someone to draft first.
3. First player draws three cards from the top of the deck. That player puts once face down in front of them. That is the “Deadpool”. They then put one card face up in front of them. That is the “Livepool” (for want of a better name – please email me one). They keep the third card.
4. The second player then draws three cards from the top of the deck. That player may now either:
    (a) Put one card face-down on the Deadpool, one card face-up on the Livepool, and keep the third;
    (b) Put all three cards face-down on the Deadpool and take the Livepool; or
    (c) Put all three cards face-up on the Livepool and swap all their chosen cards face down for the Deadpool. This may only be done once per draft.
5. This continues until both players have a minimum of 45 cards.

The interesting part of this draft is the tension the Deadpool creates. The Deadpool creates an attractive resource that almost always has more cards than either player. When your over card pool your drafting from is of high power value, the Deadpool is extremely attractive. Howeever each player only has one chance to grab the Deadpool, so there is a tension between grabbing the cards early or late.

If you aren’t the first person to grab the Deadpool, you then need to determine if the new Deadpool is better than your current taken cards. All sorts of factors go into this; watching the reaction of your opponent taking the Deadpool, their general skill level in drafting, the cards you know you’ve been feeding both the Deadpool and your opponent.

Various draft strategies might emerge; there’s ‘straight down the line’, where you simply draft as normal, or you might try to draft two separate strategies, one into your hand, one into the Deadpool as a backup, or you might try to fill the Deadpool with as much Chaff as possible while faking that you’re giving up value, to entice your opponent to swap it out. Or you might draft chaff as possible intending on swapping into the larger Deadpool before your opponent.

I’m think it should work, I’d certainly like to try it one day. If you give it a go, let me know, along with any suggestions/improvements you can think of.

AVR Draft Curiosity

I played a AVR 4322 yesterday and had a very strange draft where the number of creatures in each pack felt very, very low. No packs had more than 8 creatures, and most had between 0 and 2, generally of the ‘unplayable’ variety.

Here’s the breakdown of packs with the number of creatures available. The third pack was positively barren.

P1P1 – 6 Creatures
P1P2 – 8 Creatures
P1P3 – 2 Creatures
P1P4 – 4 Creatures
P1P5 – 5 Creatures
P1P6 – 0 Creatures
P1P7 – 4 Creatures
P1P8 – 2 Creatures
P1P9 – 1 Creature
P1P10 – 2 Creatures
P1P11 – 1 Creature
P1P12 – 1 Creature
P1P13 – 0 Creatures
P1P14 – 0 Creatures

P2P1 – 7 Creatures
P2P2 – 5 Creatures
P2P3 – 8 Creatures
P2P4 – 5 Creatures
P2P5 – 2 Creatures
P2P6 – 1 Creature
P2P7 – 2 Creatures
P2P8 – 3 Creatures
P2P9 – 1 Creature
P2P10 – 2 Creatures
P2P11 – 2 Creatures
P2P12 – 1 Creature
P2P13 – 0 Creatures
P2P14 – 0 Creatures

P3P1 – 4 Creatures
P3P2 – 5 Creatures
P3P3 – 4 Creatures
P3P4 – 6 Creatures
P3P5 – 1 Creature
P3P6 – 3 Creatures
P3P7 – 1 Creature
P3P8 – 2 Creatures
P3P9 – 1 Creature
P3P10 – 0 Creatures
P3P11 – 0 Creatures
P3P12 – 0 Creatures
P3P13 – 0 Creatures
P3P14 – 0 Creatures

I’m noticed that in AVR I generally have a terrible creature count after pack 1 (taking as much tasty tasty removal as possible) and have to scramble for creatures in packs 2 and 3. It may well be the case where creature priority is a must in picks 1-8 with spells as a pickup picks 9-14.

Curious if others are seeing the same things.

Some Early Thoughts on M12 Draft

Some Early Thoughts on M12 Draft

I’ve been drafting M12 and I’m loving it.

My first impression is that M12 draft is a lot more like Zendikar than M11. There are a few of reasons for this.

1. Bloodthirst has sped the format up a lot. As a result you can be throwing 3/3s down on turn 2 and 5/5s on turn 4 with alarming regularity. This can make for some very short games.

2. Because Bloodthirst and a lot of early removal is primarily in Red and Black, you get the same feel as playing Zendikar. For example Burst Lightning/Shock, Disfigure/Wring Flesh, Goblin Bushwhacker/Crimson Mage, Goblin War Paint/Goblin War Paint, Plated Geopede/Stormblood Berserker, Punishing Fire/Incinerate, etc.

3. Like Zendikar, your draft is primarily defined by your 2CMC cards; Pacifism, Looter, Doom Blade, Berserker, the Mage cycle, Pegasus, Dark/Divine Favour, Crown of Empires, Duskhunter Bat, Mana Leak, Garruk’s Companion, Incinerate, Rampant Growth, Reassembling Skeleton; the format has a metric tonne of great 2CMC cards and they make the format feel fast, probably faster than it really is.

4. The lack of Ramp spells seriously weakens green and makes “going big” pretty difficult. At common and uncommon you have Rampant Growth and… Llanowar Elf. This is NOT the format you want to rely on your six and seven drops to “get you there”.

The best archtypes are as follows:

1. B/R Bloodthirst: Probaby the most aggressive arctype, it has a stack of great removal (Fireball, Doom Blade, Incinerate, Sorin’s Thirst), good enablers (Goblin Arsonist, Goblin Fireslinger, Tormented Soul, Shock) that allow for consistent Bloodthirst activation. I’ve happily bolted a T1 Tormented Soul and watched the look of dejection in my opponent’s face (a dead giveaway they’re holding bloodthirst cards in hand. Po-po-po-poker face, people).

2. U/B Skies: Not as dominating as it was in M11 due to the loss of most of the draw cards and scry, it’s still a fine strategy. You really need Pacifisms and Gideon’s Lawkeeper to make it work, but the problem is Gideon’s Lawkeeper is pretty terrible at stopping Bloodthirst from activating as it’s usually one turn too slow. Regardless, if you can clog up the ground then dominating the skies is a decent approach.

3. Hexproof Aura Beatdown: A strategy that longs for Overrun backup, Hexproof Aura Beatdown is a real thing. Picking a DUngrove Elder or a Sacred Wolf and following that up with a Dark Favour or a Spirit Mantle can put your opponent s on a very, very short clock. The deck also loves to run Lure to push through final damage. Cudgel Troll tends to play a big role in the archtype, however it does slow down playing out creatures.

There are a number of other archtypes:

4. U/R Skies: A more controlly deck, it plays on activating bloodthirst and either holding down the ground with 3/3 First-Strikers and 5/5 fatties while smashing in the air, or just going full-aggro. Generally backed up by good cards like Fireball or Mind Control, or both if you’ve got really lucky. U/R Skies typically plays a dragon or two as a finisher.

5. W/R Skies: A very aggressive build, you’re generally activating Bloodthirst using Stormfront Pegasus or Griffin Sentinel (good at sending in to activate Bloodthirst due to his Vigilance, thus avoiding blowouts). The deck really wants a Benalish Veteran or two to help push damage through and sometimes goes the Auramancer/Goblin Warpoint route, though I’ve found that plan seriously overrated.

6. Mono-Black: Nowhere near as strong as in M11, it’s still a viable strategy, again relying on Bloodthirst creature in the early game, and 4/4 flyers in the late game, backed by Consume Spirit and occassionally the backbreaking Sorin’s Vengeance. That card just busts games wide open. In any limited race a 20 life swing is just incredible. However, mono-black is probably not even a Tier 1.5 strategy in M12 draft, more Tier 2 at best.

People have suggested that Blue has got the shaft in M12, but I think that title is held by Green. Green is seriously week in M12 and should only be considered if you’ve ended up with an Overrun plus a Jade Mage. It’s not an archtype I’d be happy drafting at all at the moment unless it was clear every other colour was totally unavailable. Even then it feels like a mediocre bloodthirst can just outrace a good Green deck without Overrun.

Here’s some cards I’d pick higher than others might advise.

1. Druidic Satchel: This card serves all sorts of purposes, but it’s best because it’s a pseudo Crystal Ball/Merfolk Looter. With Satchel in play you can avoid drawing any land again, they simply go into play (untapped!!) and you get to draw gas. Amazing. I’d run this in every Sealed/Draft deck I ever get.

2. Adaptive Auromaton: I don’t rate him terribly highly, but his versatility in getting damaged push through is not to be underrated. In Green you can confindently name Saproling, especially if you also have a Druidic Satchel. I’ve happily named Ooze and won a game because of it.

3. Alabaster Mage: In any fast format, the ability to outrace your opponent becomes critical. This is one of the few lifegain cards worth playing and he really does screw up racing maths, especially when backed by flyers. If your opponent is playing Sorin’s Vengeance, which will be a rare (see what I did there) but not impossible occurance, you really want to have this guy at hand.

4. Crown of Empires: Yes, it feels a little slow, and I’ve certainly kicked someone’s arse who felt like getting the most activations possible from it, rather than developing his board position, was the way to go. But as a follow-up card on Turns 5-6 you’re rarely going to be disappointed. Anything that can take out your opponent’s best creature, for colourless mana, is worth while picking.

5. Day of Judgment: This is a format where people will blithly dump their hands, and as such Day of Judgment’s stock just went up. I had one at Nationals and got a lot of value from it, whether it was to make up for a slow starting hand (Wrath, start again), to killing an army of Hexproof creatures, or leaping from my aggressive openers to creating room for my finishers. Much better in M12 limited than M11.

So there you have it, some thought thus far on the M12 draft environment. I’m really enjoying it so far, hope you do too.

Counting Points of Removal

Counting Points of Removal

Yesterday on Twitter I mentioned I had a points-of-removal system for rating my draft decks and people seemed curious. It’s very simple so this won’t be a long post.

Essentially, I have a short-hand system of assigning points to cards that represent removal in my limited decks. The point system is easy to understand:

.5 point: Combat tricks (eg Mutagenic Growth, Thunder Strike, Infantry Veteran)
1 Point: Direct removal (eg Lightning Bolt, Doom Blade, Flametongue Kavu)
2 Points: Mass removal or repeatable removal (eg. Wrath of God, Fireball, Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief)

To feel truly comfortable with a limited deck I want to have as a minimum 8 points of removal. In some formats, such as M11 draft, this is hard to achieve. In others, such a SMN, it’s a lot easier. Your mileage will vary from format to format, but you’ll generally find a good baseline for each.

For instance, in M11 I might be happy with a deck with 6 points of removal in it. With SMN I might be unhappy with less than 10. In NNN I might be unhappy with less than 12 as there are so many ways to eek out advantages in that format.

And there you go. Simple.