Early DGM/GTC/RTR Impressions & Three Colour Drafting Strategy

Ok, I’ll admit it, I’m pretty fascinated about the Dragon’s Maze/Gatecrash/Return to Ravnica draft format. It’s incredibly deep, quite thoughtful, and relatively well balanced.

The pack flow makes perfect sense once you understand it. I’ve put together a little ‘cheat sheet’ to help people figure out what’s happening in the draft, as demonstrated below.

I don’t believe it makes sense to try to force two colours, as it means in one of the packs you’re effectively drafting the mono-coloured cards, and the mono-coloured cards are simply of lesser power than the gold cards. Why would you want to hamstring yourself like that?

In my mind, the best strategy is to either see what three colours are strongest in your first pack and draft along those lines, or to force one of the better three-colour combinations from the start.

Which begs the question, what are the best three-colour combinations to force?

There are 10 three-colour combinations, five of which are drafted in a 3-2-1 sequence (three guilds in the first pack, two in the second, one in the third) and five of which are drafted in a 3-1-2 sequence, as demonstrated above. Each of the three colour combinations lands with a different set of keywords and synergies. I’ve outlined those, and my impression of them, in the graphic below.

From what I can tell so far – and I have not had a great deal of experience beyond anyone else – the three-colour cobminations in the 3-2-1 sequence are stronger than those in the 3-1-2 sequence. In addition, there are two guilds in particular where the reward is higher for forcing those colours early in DGM and GTC, and two more guilds that generally lead to positive results.

Part of the reason I prefer the 3-2-1 sequence to the 3-1-2 sequence is that the mono-coloured cards in RTR are(generally) stronger than those in GTC (though there are exactly the same number). Remember the RTR mono-coloured cards? In black alone you had Stab Wound, Thrill-Kill Assassin, Ultimate Price, Dead Reveler, Desecration Demon and… oh that’s right, Pack Rat.

Importantly, the format will eventually be seen as defined by its two-for-ones, of which there are many (Far/Away, Scab-Clan Giant, Ubul Sar Gatekeepers, etc). This should be brought to mind whenever thinking about the draft format.

Let’s start with the two most highly rewarding guilds to draft in Packs 1 & 2: Orzhov and Boros. These two guilds have access to the most of the premium removal, some of the most absurd bombs, and generally high-quality commons and uncommons.

Drafting Orzhov in the first pack should lead down one of two paths; either supplementing with Boros/Rackos if going aggressive, or Dimir/Azorius if going disruptive/evasive. Both these paths will leade to very good results, as both those three-colour combinations are two of the three that I currently consider ‘the best’. Both these paths give you some draft freedom in the second pack as you are still picking up two different guilds. The third pack you’ll either settle on Rakdos or Azorious. Rakdos and Selesnya were the premium guilds in raw Return to Ravnica, but I think populate suffers with the loss of good token makers in the Gatecrash pack. The power of Unleash, however, isn’t hurt by absence of other Unleash creatures, so Rakdos’ power level is maintained.

Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos is the most aggressive deck in the format. It includes creatures with excellent CMC to Power ratios, the most efficient removal, and the most absurd bombs (a snapshot: Aurelia, the Warleader, Obzedat, Ghost Council, Blood Baron of Vizkopa, Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch, Master of Cruelties, Sire of Insanity, Tajic, Blade of the Legion, Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts, Angel of Serenity, Angelic Skirmisher, Assemble the Legion, Boros Battleshaper, Boros Reckoner, Deathpact Angel, Firemane Avenger, etc etc… I mean it, etc, etc… like Mizzium Mortars, Pack Rat, it just keeps going…). With three packs you get a very real chance of drafting a deck capable of simply burning your opponent out, especially when combined with Extort. Between the early fast rush, the late game bombs, the excellent removal, and the abilty to win any race through Extort, Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos is probably the best deck in the format.

If you’re comfortable in the control space then Orzhov / Dimir / Azorius is for you, being able to pick up some of the best removal/disruption in the format, while building an excellent flash/counterspell/removal shell (think Deputy of Acquittals/Hussar Patrol/Skyline Predator/Counterspells) makes the Esper space very powerful. Cards such as Inspiration help you have something to do while holding up counterspell mana, and once-underpowered utility creatures such as Bane Alley Broker get a lot better in the shell.

Drafting Boros either leads to the Orzhov/Rakdos path I’ve already covered, or the powerful Boros / Gruul / Selesnya trio, the third of the what I currently consider the best three-colour combinations. Again, this is a 3-2-1 path where, knowing you’ll end up in Selesnya, cards such as Bronzebeak Moa and Trostani’s Summoner gain in value (noting that the Summoner is a powerful Battalion enabler). The downside of throwing away creatures on Bloodrush is negated by the fact you’re gaining extra tokens over time through populate, and your generally-bigger creatures helps turn on Battalion. The ability to also protect your Battalion through Bloodrush, or have creatures to trigger Battalion through Populate is also highly synergistic.

However, both Orzhov and Boros can lead down uncomfortable paths. For Orzhov this is Junk, where you end up with Orzhov / Golgari / Selesnya, which is relively anti-syneristic. You have a lot of mana sinks, none of which work terribly well together. Extort wants spells, and spending mana to Populate or Scavenge doesn’t help the trigger. There is some synergy between having getting creatures to Scavange onto with Populate, but the mana costs involved are rather exhorbitant, and you’d probably rather just have another creature anyway.

Meanwhile Boros can lead to Boros / Azorius / Izzet, which is an Aggro Control deck that ends up highly reliant on instants and sorciers, as place that Boros doesn’t want to be, as it relies heavily on creatures. Izzet creatures don’t generally both attack and play creatures at the same time (see Frostburn Weird, Nivix Cyclops, Aetherling, Fluxcharger, etc). Battalion is happy to work with Azorious’s evasive flyers, but overall the trio feel like they are pulling against each other. I’ll note here that both Orzhov / Golgari / Selesnya and Boros / Azorius / Izzet are 3-1-2 decks.

An alternate strategy is to cast your lot with Simic. Each of the three Simic strategies are relatively solid affairs. My prefer choice would be Simic / Gruul / Izzet rooted firmly in Ramp. Both the Gruul and Izzet creatures are fairly reliable at triggering Evolve, and the ability to ramp helps to find the mana for maximising Overload effects. With an early rush, and some of the biggest creatures on the board, it doesn’t matter whether your finisher is a Mizzium Mortars, Teleportal, Blusterquall or Dragonshift, the effect is the same: your opponent loses. This is another 3-2-1 path.

Simic can also head down the Simic / Selesnya / Azorious path. Although it’s a 3-1-2 path, it can work as the Simic cards in Gatecrash are generally strong enough to support it. The advantages are you have access to populate in order to regularly trigger Evolve, especially in battle. However you need the right Populate cards to do it – Seller of Songbirds isn’t going to cut it. Nor, generally, will the Azorius cards, though there is some utility in being able to Evolve with a flash creature (one imagines flashing in and out a Deputy of Acquittals to keep the Evolve triggers coming).

The third Simic path is Simic / Dimir / Golgari, which opens the path to decent removal and a solid ‘+1/+1 counters matter’ theme. The addition of Dimir’s evasive creatures means you have the opportunity to draft an entirely unblockable deck, including Sewer Shambler, Woodlot Crawler, AEtherling, Elusive Krasis, Soulsworn Spirit, Deathcult Rogue, Spire Tracer, which frankly sounds like an utter nightmare to play against. Combine that with some advantage from the +1/+1 counters floating around and you end up with a deck with a lot of inevitability.

That leaves two other decks. The penultimate deck is Gruul / Rakdos / Golgari, which I will dub “Team Never-Block”. You get some excellent aggressive starts that are backed up by Bloodrush and late-game Scavenge. You are really of a one-track mind with this deck, “attack”. Should you ever have to slow down, you can’t expect to have that many evasive creatures to push through. This is tempered a little by the best access to deathtouch to push through damage, or falling back on trading/scavenge. You also have some premium removal with Putrefy, red’s multitude of burn spells, and the black standards such as Grisly Spectacle and Ultimate Price. It’s a little hard to draft, being a 3-1-2 path, but probably worth attempting.

The last deck is a hot mess, Dimir / Izzet / Rakdos. It’s a deck that doesn’t know what it wants to be doing. You’d think that cipher would have a lot of synergy with Izzet, but the timing of the triggers is all wrong. Izzet wants to trigger before you hit your opponent, not after, which ends up with disappointing results. Meanwhile Rakdos, which has been desperate to just attack attack attack isn’t getting much support other than some good removal – the best being Far/Away and Turn/Burn. Maybe – just maybe – those two cards alone are enough to save the combination, but don’t think anyone’s going to be passing them to you that often. This is the worst of the worst path, a 3-1-2 that ends up with a real dog’s breakfast.

So that’s my early-impression breakdown of the 10 three-colour guild combinations. I don’t think it’s advisable to push a two-colour combination across all three packs, as you’re ultimately missing out on high-value cards for the sake of mana consistency, and I don’t think the packs are deep enough to support having a strong enough curve to make that worthwile.

My last note is on one of the first things I mentioned, about the format being defined by its two-for-ones. I think that when drafting you should take not of you ability to maximise your two-for-ones. Orzhov / Dimir / Azorius, for instance, has access to Deputy of Acquittals, which can help you gain extra value from your Sin Collectors & Ubul Sar Gatekeepers, while also blanking your opponents’ removal. At common and uncommon, Boros / Gruul / Selesnya has access Blaze Commando, Rootborn Defenses and populate cards such as Scab-Clan Giant, Sunhome Guildmage & Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage to generate incremental advantage over time. When you can’t just draft Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos and run your opponent over, the ability to survive the early game and then build advantage over time is critical. In many ways, DGM/GTC/RTR is going to a battle of attrition and the deck that knows how it’s going to build an advantage will have various benefits over one that doesn’t.

I’ll come back to visit all this as the format becomes more clearly defined, if nothing else than to figure out where I went wrong. For instance, I probably underestimate Grixis’ ability to thrive in a format insisting on value plays. The fun will be finding out just how wrong I got it. Good luck out there!

The Unofficial Guide to The Official Miser’s Guide

There are few writers of great enough stature to inject themselves into every story. David Foster Wallace. Hunter S. Thompson. Truman Capote. Jack Kerouac. Paul Theroux. If one of those names aren’t you then god help your writing if you insist on doing so. You will come across arrogant, patronising, and conceited. This is made infinitely worse if, when you do choose to force your ego into every narrative, you play yourself up, rather than take the more nuanced route of self-deprecation. And the greatest sin is to do self-deprecation so badly it becomes indistinguishable from arrogance.

This left me wondering, while reading The Official Miser’s Guide by Michael J. Flores, whether the constant, excruciating, self-aggrandisement was something he meant as a joke, or meant seriously but failed to be humorously conveyed. Because boy does it get in the way of everything else in the book. But by the end of the book what I discovered is that not only is the ego inflation intended completely seriously, behind it is a sophisticated plan based on pure, unadulterated bullshit.

The Official Miser’s Guide is, ostensibly, a self-help book written to help Magic: the Gathering players improve various areas of their game. It’s written by Michael J. Flores, one of the longest and most prolific Magic writers, a guy who has won various competitions and designed many decks. If you read The Official Miser’s Guide you’ll hear about every single one of them. Possibly twice. At the very least, by the end, you’ll have absolutely no doubt in your mind who came second at New York States in 2005.[i] This is the terrible journey the book takes you on, and with it comes the creeping realisation that Flores intends on moving from being the deck-building don of Magic to the Tony Robbins self-help guru of Magic.

Chapter 1 opens up with Flores bragging about attending for free the NYC movie premier of Kick-Ass, which has nothing to do with Magic but apparently is highly relevant to Flores’s “…framework for the personality that I invented (and presumably all of you guys love…)”, a rather large, but entirely in-keeping with his ego, assumption for Flores to make. The kicker for this anecdote is a joke that there is no-one having sex in The Official Miser’s Guide (although, horribly, there are several dating tips), and thank whichever higher power prevented that because you just know it would have involved Flores fucking some impossibly beautiful person and describing in entirely too much detail exactly what he was doing to give her the most almighty orgasm of her life.

The next 20-odd pages involve Flores justifying his (and the books) existence, which largely involves name-dropping other Magic players[ii] and explaining why Flores’ very existence among these titans of Magic made him the best person to write this book. These names are punctuated by random big-noting for his Magic history, for instance Flores declaring “”Who’s The Beatdown?” – generally considered to be the greatest Magic article of all time” and “the podcast that Brian David-Marshall and I have been doing for more than six years, was the first –and still the best – Magic podcast”.

As you chew through these early chapters you wonder whether Flores has the world’s largest ego or instead some sort of self-image problem so crippling he needs this immense, continual, self reinforcement in order to face the world each morning.

At the end of Chapter 1 Flores announces his first “homework assignment”, which is to smile for twenty minutes a day. In Chapter 8 he explains it in reference to an Anthony Robbins anecdote about a UC Berkeley study that supposedly cured the clinically depressed through smile therapy with a 100% success rate, a study I’m guessing was so profound that to this day psychologists and psychiatrists prescribe it at every given opportunity (and cannot be found on the web except in reference to Tony Robbins[iii]). Here’s some counter-advice. Use those twenty minutes to masturbate. I guarantee you’ll have something to smile about by the end of it. Besides, masturbating for twenty minutes a day is exactly how Flores wrote The Official Miser’s Guide.

Chapter 2 starts out with the same self-improvement guff, followed by more of the same self-serving pap, for instance “Most people think about “Who’s The Beatdown?” as the single greatest Magic strategy article of all time.”. Apparently telling us this point in Chapter 1 was not enough, Flores’s insecurity is so great that the point needed to be restated in Chapter 2.

This is followed by writing that is alternately patronizing (“At US Nationals 2000—you may have heard of this tournament”), lazy (“I don’t remember what I told Tom, but eleven years later, it hardly matters. What I would say now is that what I might have said in late 1999 or early 2000 was no more or less true at that point than it was when I built Napster”), and contradictory – after navigating the dirty waters of why complexity, context and flexibility is so important, Flores then launches into a full throated defense of generalisations, which he will then rely on for the rest of the book. His defense of generalisations rests on the philosophical question of whether “Can 1-3 words describe even one strand of her hair, let alone a whole head of it?” to which the only response is short, dark and curly.

Flores then launches into a weird attack against an anonymous podcast with “I was listening to a not-useful (and for that matter not-good) podcast about a week ago…”, which is a pretty unnecessary and mean-spirited thing to drop into a book out of nowhere. In fact, the entire sequence about the “Double Nickel” could of easily been re-written to avoid mentioning the podcasters, and it makes his lead-up to his otherwise blow-job-esque description of Jon Finkel – “While he never gave us a Deckade or a My Files full of wisdom and tournament reports, or even that general rule that we all so desire, Jon….” – seem like a side-swipe instead of an in-joke as probably intended. What you eventually discover is truly important about the wisdom Finkel does impart is that is that Flores was there when Jon said it.

Having crowed about Finkel, Flores seems to realise he might not appear the biggest cock in the room anymore, so he spends the next few pages reinforcing his uber-status, noting that for two-years running (2005 & 2006, apparently the most relevant years of Magic ever) Ted Knutson called him “the “Pat Miletich of Magic.””. Flores notes “I took it as a compliment then, and am bragging about it now”. Mike Flores, bragging? Better fetch the smelling salts for surely one has fainted dead away.

In Chapter 3 Michael J. Flores kicks off with a mention of New York Times writer Paul Zane Pilzer, but it’s another Times writer that Flores reminds me most of: Thomas L. Friedman.

If you’re not familiar with Thomas L. Friedman, he’s written such seminal works as The Lexus and the Olive Tree and From Beirut to Jerusalem. His early work, although criticised by some, was widely lauded and his articles as the time for the Times earned him plaudits and awards.

However time has not treated Friedman well. His tendency to insert himself into every story in a larger-than-life manner has worked against him. His habit of torturing analogies to death has caused him to become a target of mockery in the pundit world. His constant name dropping, references to irrelevant historical touchstones, and continual repetition of hollow theories has made his writing cumbersome and easy to ridicule.

Remind you of anyone?

Flores rounds out Chapter 3 with The Power Of Positive Thinking, which essentially moves him from channelling Friedman to channelling Oprah and The Secret, that awful self-help book that implied people should not associate with cancer victims lest they bring cancer upon themselves.

“The winner is the person who is most certain of victory” states Flores, which is an eye-opening read for all the underdogs and longshots who cannot possibly win against a superior player with a superior deck in a game of chance.

Flores hedges this somewhat by following it up with “But by and large, in competitive matchups—you know, the ones where neither player is blown out in a mana-screw, where the fight can go either way—the player who establishes superior certainty will win.”, which defangs the statement by taking the psychological aspect out of it and effectively making it a truism; the player who establishes certainty to win first will win. Ultimately, he simply contradicts this entirely in Chapter 28, when he talks about how he beat a guy who “had every certainty he was going to win… “, thereby revealing a players certainty has little to do with the matter, it’s a player’s skill that shines through.

Chapter 4 kicks off with game theory (after three pages about how gravity isn’t about to fail him and cause him to go spinning into space as he is bound to earth by the shear mass of his ego) and finally Flores is in his element; card economy, the philosophy of fire, and tempo. These are pretty basic theories by now, still solid, and Flores does well to get them out of the way early.

As this stuff has been around for years, the only real problem with this section is the hedging that Flores employs, as in these three instances:

“While conventional wisdom quite usefully states that Pro players are more likely to maximize card advantage given the same resources and matchups than amateur players are (especially in Limited), it is important to approach Magic knowing that card advantage is not a be all, end all. Should we in general try to maximize it? Sure. But not every time.”

“While playing to maximize card advantage is the default way that Pro players approach the game, remember that when a particular resource is not what is scarce, the value we gain by maximizing card advantage may be similarly de-emphasized. In short, card advantage is a guideline, but for the most part, play to win.”

“As with card advantage, operating with tempo in mind is generally desirable but not a “be all, end all.””

This continual hedging leads the reader to one of two conclusions: either Flores lacks such confidence in his own guidelines that he has to continually reinforce the notions that they are just guidelines; or he lacks such confidence in the intelligence of his readers that he feels he has to keep reminding them what a guidelines is.

The problem is that continually reminding the reader of such creates trivial non-statements in the form of “do x unless you shouldn’t do x”, without any clear guidelines of what to look for in the exceptions. This is a real area where Flores is lacking. Rather than build up a new, interesting framework on when to go outside the boundaries of his useful guidelines – ie. when do his guidelines no longer become useful – he just skips the topic entirely and relies upon his readers to fill in the gaps, thereby adding nothing of substance to theories that are now almost a decade old.

This would have been an excellent spot for Flores to describe what corner-cases are in Magic and how to recognise when the gamestate has reached a corner-case, but the opportunity is missed. If you are going to give your readers a toolkit of guidelines, it’s equally important to give them the tools for operating outside of the guidelines and recognising when it’s correct to do so.

At this point, four chapters in, the only new and unique discussion Flores has committed is the difference between useful & non-useful vs right & wrong (an interesting discussion back in Chapter 2). Everything else has been pomp and pageantry marching across well worn ground.

This continues in Chapters 5 and 6, which cover the concept of trump cards, Zvi’s the Fundamental turn, going “over the top”, game-stage theory, sliding into home with Flores’ ” Grand Unified Theory of Magic” and a re-tread of the old stock mana theory – and the confession by Flores that he was at the height of his theoretical powers in 2000, over ten years ago. It shows.

Chapter 7 is about the metagame and it’s a logical clusterfuck of Flores proportions. Firstly Flores sets up the strawman of ‘players’ who define the metagame as “a proxy for the word “environment” or “format,” and it’s not the same thing.” This isn’t what most players would define the ‘metagame’ as. Next Flores takes a look at the Wikipedia definition:

“the ‘metagame’ refers to the deck (or group of decks) that are expected to show up in a larger number in a tournament”.

In response Flores declares:

“Sorry Wiki! I think this is kind of a terrible and not particularly useful definition. Instead, I’ll give you one from Justice League of America co-foundress and Bird of Prey Dinah Laurel Lance, the trainer of teevee’s Young Justice: “Combat is about controlling conflict—putting the battle on your terms. You should always be acting, never reacting.” —Black Canary”

This is an even less useful description of the metagame than the Flores Wikipedia version. Later Flores continues:

“I want you to stop thinking about the metagame as Wikipedia suggests—merely a group of decks—and more along the lines of a game, a game you are (or at least can be) playing. The true metagame is what we play (though maybe we don’t necessarily play it well) every time we pick a deck to play in a tournament.”

Incidentally, Wikipedia actually defines ‘the metagame’ as:[iv]

“a broad term usually used to define any strategy, action or method used in a game which transcends a prescribed ruleset, uses external factors to affect the game, or goes beyond the supposed limits or environment set by the game. Another definition refers to the game universe outside of the game itself. In simple terms, it is the use of out-of-game information or resources to affect one’s in-game decisions.”

So maybe Flores could stop harshing on poor Wikipedia as he puts words in its mouth.

Regardless, Flores uses this as a segue to talk about his deck, Critical Mass, a deck that by his own admission “was played in only two tournaments ever” and yet “represented a leap in technology and the pinnacle of what elite deck designers call THE Deck”. Yes, that’s correct, Flores has officially declared Critical Mass the pinnacle of deck design. Forget other equally fleetingly decks that have performed better (for example Alexander Hayne’s Pro Tour winning UW Miracles deck). Forget Cawblade, which completely and utterly dominated its format for months. Forget Thopter Depths, which was so attuned to the metagame the key pieces were immediately banned on Modern’s inception. Forget Flash Hulk, a deck so broken it could win on Turn Zero. No, the pinnacle of deck design was a deck that never had a chance to be blown out by a competitive metagame because the format ended too quickly.

If the argument is that Gnarled Mass should be considered “the pinnacle of what elite deck designers call THE Deck” because it had 90% match rate, Flores himself undercuts this argument by stating that “Jon Finkel once won a PTQ with a deck he claimed had all good matchups” that Flores himself lost to. Under this criteria surely that deck would be The Pinnacle Ultimate Fighting Championship Deck Of All Time. But it’s not. It’s Gnarled Mass.

Flores follows this up with an interesting discussion about metagaming using Rock – Paper – Scissors as an example that is well worth reading. He then almost leads into a useful philosophical discussion about the why or why not to play the “Deck to Beat”, but only states one side of the argument, never following through with the intellectual rigour of positing the other side’s viewpoint. Flores reveals that he never plays the Deck to Beat because:

“Who are the most popular Magic writers? Myself? Patrick Chapin? Zvi Mowshowitz? Gerry Thompson? Heck, Conley Woods was awarded the title of Deck Designer of the Year by a Magic podcast in 2010. All of us are technology producers. None of us want to blend in.”

It all boils down to ego. Ain’t that a surprise?

Chapter 8 involves Flores getting punched in the face twice, easily making it the best section of the book.

Chapter 9 contains a lot of repetition of the words “smile and “certainty, easily making it one of the more boring sections of the book.

Chapter 10 is where the fun begins again. Flores delves into the world of Neuro-Linguistic Programming. What is Neuro-Linguistic Programming? Let’s allow Wikipedia to take a swipe at Flores this time:

“Neuro-linguistic programming is a largely discredited approach to communication, personal development, and psychotherapy created in the 1970s… Reviews of empirical research on NLP indicate that NLP contains numerous factual errors, and has failed to produce reliable results for the claims for effectiveness made by NLP’s originators and proponents… Criticisms go beyond the lack of empirical evidence for effectiveness; critics say that NLP exhibits pseudoscientific characteristics, title, concepts and terminology. NLP is used as an example of pseudoscience for facilitating the teaching of scientific literacy at the professional and university level.”[v]

That’s right, NLP is pure, unmitigated bullshit. I’m not going to further dignify NLP with a cogent argument against it. Crack open a book. Use Google. It’s all there.

Flores states “Language Lesson Numero Uno: Your unconscious mind can’t process a negative.”

This is also pure, unmitigated bullshit. Even the most cursory examination of this premise should allow you to recognize its invalidity.

Flores launches into the use of NLP “embedded commands”, as used by pickup artists and multimedia marketers.

Embedded commands are pure, unmitigated bullshit.

Flores then drops the name of Frank Kern, who he calls “the godfather of Internet marketing”.

Frank Kern is full of pure, unmitigated bullshit. If you’d like more information on Frank Kern, try reading The Verge’s 2012 article entitled “Scamworld: ‘Get rich quick’ schemes mutate into an online monster“.[vi] Be careful if you google for him, there are a great deal of websites that start off criticising him, only as a lure to get you to buy his product.

Flores spends the chapter using NLP and pick-up artist practices as the theoretical underpinnings of “mind tricking” your opponent. Further pure, unmitigated bullshit.

This is not to say you can’t mind-trick your opponent; certainly you can. You can lead your opponent into all sorts of self-harming actions during a game. However the psychology behind these actions have absolutely nothing to do with the pseudoscience of NLP.

But forget the rest, Flores citing NLP is itself the big reveal.

It becomes clear that across The Official Miser’s Guide Flores follows up each mention of Who’s The Beatdown with hyperbole[vii] not because he necessarily believes it, but because he thinks that if he keeps repeating these statements, you will believe it.

This explains the endless effort Flores takes to tie himself to accomplished players, to insert himself however tenuously into any situation where Magic of worth is occurring, to exaggerate and inflate and laud himself and his work as infinitely more important than it is, and apparently, the reason he finishes each of this non-Wizards articles with LOVE MIKE, as he believes the embedded command of this statement will cause you to actually love him. No seriously, that’s what he writes. In his own words. To be seen by everyone.

The stark reality is that The Official Miser’s Guide isn’t a self-help guide. It’s a long advertising flyer for Michael J. Flores, with about as much value.

It’s at this point in The Official Miser’s Guide where, as a reader, you have to make a choice. Are you going to continue to absorb this non-information and waste your time on ego-inflated, scientifically discredited, factually challenged, illogical, repetitious nonsense, or are you going to put it down and go do something more useful, like stick forks into your eyeballs?

Mike Flores was a great deck-builder and great writer. Now he is an inglorious hack spouting utter nonsense in an effort to fool enough people to buy his “brand”.[viii] The Official Miser’s Guide is less a self-help book than a marketing pamphlet filled with the Magic equivalent of get rich quick schemes. When I began reading The Official Miser’s Guide I thought there was nothing here that couldn’t be saved by a ruthless editor. However as the layers around the foundations were pulled back to reveal the bullshit bedrock beneath them it became clear that The Official Miser’s Guide is irredeemable. The best of it is already out there; the worst of it actually makes you dumber for reading it.

Paradoxically, we will leave it to Flores to argue whether you should buy The Official Miser’s Guide or not. Flores states:

“There is such a thing as not useful, and we should generally slough off not-useful information whenever possible. I would go so far as to say we should shun and actively avoid sources of not-useful information.”

And I, for once, agree with him.


[i] It was Michael J. Flores.

[ii] Eg. Luis Scott-Vargas, Conley Woods, Michael Jacob, Brian David-Marshall, Randy Buehler, Joey Pasco, Gabriel Nassif, Brian Hacker, Jon Finkel, Jamie Parke, Tom Martell, Steve O’Mahoney-Schwartz, Tony Tsai, Brian Kowal

[iii] I spent all of 3 minutes looking, so I am totally prepared for someone to actually find the damn thing and email me a link.

[iv] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metagaming ’Metagame’ isn’t specifically defined on the Magic entry on Wikipedia. If you can find what Flores was talking about, let me know.

[vii] “generally considered to be the greatest Magic article of all time” Chapter 1, “the single greatest Magic strategy article of all time” Chapter 2, “generally considered the single most influential Magic article of all time” Chapter 9 plus a couple of other mentions that aren’t so prosaic.

[viii] see Chapters 29 and 30, if you dare to persevere that far.

Creature Creep

Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The 2CMC Bomb

Today on Twitter Rob Martin asked “Concerned about the power lvl of the creatures at all in the new release?”.

Now, I spend time on twitter taking the piss out of WotC for the power level of their creatures like I’m getting paid to do so. That said, I’m not concerned about power creep.

When talking about creature creep, you need a frame of references. For this discussion there are two data points that interest me the most: those creatures that are banned in various formats, and the acknowledged ‘best creatures’ of all time.

There is only one creature banned in Extended – Stoneforge Mystic. The power level of this lady isn’t in her power or toughness, but in her two abilities, the first a tutor for whatever is the best equipment in that format, then drop it into play for the low, low cost of 1W. Mystic was printed in Worldwake, released at the beginning of 2010. That about a year and a half ago now.

There are only three creatures banned in Modern – Stoneforge Mystic (who I just discussed), Golgari Grave Troll, and Wild Nacatl. Golgari Grave Troll isn’t banned due to his power or toughness, but due to a number next to a keyword. Apparently, Dredge 6 is just too large an incentive not to warp the format with a powerful dredge deck. Golgari’s Grave Troll‘s power and toughness could literally be 1/1 and it would still see play due to Dredge 6. He was printed in Ranvina in 2005, almost 7 years ago. Nacatl is a little more what we expect from ‘creature power creep’, largely as she’s almost always a 3/3 on Turn 2, which is an amazingly aggressive start. WotC were worried that the only viable aggro deck in a Modern format with Nacatl live would be Naya Zoo, and therefore elected to ban it. This looks a little premature now that we have Delver of Secrets, the flying 3/2 on T2, dominating the board in Standard, Modern and Legacy.

Legacy is an interesting format when it comes to banned creatures. Tempest Efreet, Timmerian Fiends, and Jeweled Bird aside (banned due to the legality of their wording, as opposed to their power level), there are again three relevant creatures banned – Goblin Recruiter, Hermit Druid, and Worldgorger Dragon (who recently came off the EDH banned list). Goblin Recruiter and Hermit Druid suffer the same problem as Stoneforge Mystic; they have an unconditional tutor effect that warps entire decks. Hermit Druid is a monster as you can literally decline to play a basic land in your deck, dump your libary into your graveyard, and go from there. Goblin Recruiter has a similar effect and it’s easy to understand how it could be abused, even outside a goblin aggro strategy. Worldgorger Dragon is banned due to his ability, rather than his rather mundane power and toughness, with WotC deciding it would much perfer players to combo out with a 3-mana spell like Show And Tell than a 6-mana spell like Worldgorger. Hermit Druid was printed for Stronghold in 1998, Goblin Recruiter for Visions in 1997, and Worldgorger Dragon for Judgement in 2002.

So when looking at what it takes to get a creature banned, it’s clear you either need a broken tutor effect, or to be a clear combo piece (or in the case of Hermit Druid, both) to get the shaft. With Delver of Secrets pushing the line in Standard, Modern and Legacy, I wouldn’t be surprised in Wild Nacatl was unbanned in Modern – or if Delver were banned once it rotates out of Standard.

Right now, looking at the barely-there spoiler list for Return to Ravnica, there’s nothing that fits this space. Now combo pieces generally appear a little later in the maturity of a format, so if there is one, we may be seeing it, but not seeing the combo yet. However WotC tend to have a good handle on controlling combo effects (even though they missed the Deceiver Exarch / Splinter Twin combo for the brief period it was legal in Standard). Likewise, I think they’ve probably learnt their lesson on putting tutor effects on creatures (though maybe not, I’m looking at you, Primeval Titan), and we haven’t seen one yet amongst the Return to Ravnica spoilers yet. It seems the magic number for a broken tutor creature is 2CMC, and while Viridian Emissary saw a little play, Dawntreader didn’t, the Trinket Mage/Treasure Mage combo never made it off the Kitchen Table, Kuldoth Forgemaster has been relegated to a little Legacy play, and only Brad Nelson plays Rune-Scarred Demon in Standard. The exception has been Solemn Simulacrum, which saw a fair amount of play as a State 2 control card, but was certainly far from overpowered (and was first printed for Mirrodin in 2003). The most powerful creatures that ushered in the era of ‘battlefield magic’ – the Titans (plus Wurmcoil Engine) are all about to rotate out of Standard and their doesn’t seem to be a clear group of board-dominating 6-drops to replace them.

So if creatures aren’t getting more ‘broken’, are they at least getting stronger?

The one drop spot is interesting. I’ve talked about Wild Nacatl, but it fights for top spot in the aggro ladder with the likes of Kird Ape, Loam Lion, Delver of Secrets, Steppe Lynx, Savannah Lions and Goblin Guide. In reality, these guys all hover around the same power level. Occasionally Delver of Secrets is a disappointing 1/1. Occasionally Goblin Guide creates un-beatable card-advantage for your opponent. Occasionally Steppe Lynx is a terrible 0/1. Yes, each of these cards are supported by decks designed to mitigate this, but in general, across time, the power level has stayed the same. Whether Delver of Secrets is banned in Standard or Modern will be a significant tell to how WotC feel about the 1-drop spot (I’m guessing it won’t). RTR has given us Nivmagus Elemental, which, although strong, is actually deceptively weak due to its mana intensivity. It’s major strength is that it’s blue, and if Blue can protect this during T1/T2 to get it to be a ’1 mana’ 3/4, then we might have a new king of the 1-drops. This, however, remains to be seen, and in reality is (a) costing more than 1 mana, and (b) costing more than 1 card. This might be too much cost in the long run.

If you’ve watched the Channel Fireball Top 8 2-Drop Creatures video you get Quasali Pridemage (a 2/2 capable of becoming a 3/3), Meddling Mage (a 2/2), Lotus Cobra (a 2/1), Stoneforge Mystic (a 1/2), Wild Mongrel (2/2 that grows), Arcbound Ravager (a 1/1 that grows), Tarmogoyf (usually a 6/7), and Dark Confidant (a 2/1). Of these, it’s Tarmogoyf that’s the gold-standard for aggro drops, the 2-mana 6/7, with Wild Mongrel a close second. The rest are generally pieces of a larger puzzle. Wild Mongrel was printed for Odyssey in 2001, and Tarmogoyf for Future Sight in 2007. It might seem crazy to think about, but we haven’t had as aggressive a 2-drop in almost five years. There is some question whether Lotleth Troll (LOL TROLL) will be able to fill those shoes, but LOL TROLL requires a deck to be built around it, unlike Tarmogoyf, which can fill a roll in almost ever strategy (other than combo, you nitpicking bastards (and now I’ll get an email with a Tarmogoyf combo deck)).

The three-drop spot broadens things significantly. There’s over 1500 three drop creatures in MtG history, but even the most ‘powerful’ of them – weirdly, Phyrexian Soulgorger (Coldsnap, 2006) – never saw serious play (maybe it should have). The big vanilla creatures, Leatherback Baloth and Woolly Thoctar certainly put older vanilla cards such as Alaborn Trooper and Gorilla Warrior to shame, but even then don’t often pack as much punch as a Ball Lightning (first printed in 1994). The big non-vanilla 3-drops of late, such as Phylactery Lich and Skaab Ruinator never made it into tournament play, the benefits too often seen as ‘not worth the effort’. For super-powered three drops we must look to cards such as Psychatog (Odyssey, 2001), Knight of the Reliquary (Conflux, 2009), and Vendilion Clique (Morningtide, 2008). Vendilion Clique is really a control finisher, of the other two Psychatog is the true Beatdown King. Mike Flores might of been bashing people with Gnarled Mass, but we’ve come to expect bigger and better – Gnarled Mass now comes with Flash and Regeneration, thanks Wolfir Avenger.

The ‘big’ three drop in Return to Ravnica so far is Loxodon Smiter, a 3CMC 4/4 with only upside. I think this is a big departure from the other creatures in some ways, even through he’ll generally lose in combat to a Tarmogoyf (though admittely there is nothing the artwork that suggest the Smiter isn’t female, I’m still using “he”). This where I think the major change in WotC philosophy comes in; they are willing for players to get more out of their creatures at higher mana costs.

This is transparently apparently when you look at where the 4CMC to 6CMC slot creatures have headed over the past few years. No more Juzam Djinn (Arabian Nights, 1993) or Erhnam Djinn (Judgement, 2002), instead we have Abyssal Persecutor and the new Desecration Demon. Sure their downsides seem worse, but they are both effectively better creatures. In M10 we received the bonkers Baneslayer Angel at 5CMC, and in M11 we received the Titans at 6CMC. At 8-mana we now get clear game-winners such as Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Griselbrand.

However, as you can see, while the top of the curve continues to improve for creature’s power, toughness, and abilities, the bottom of the curve continues to dawdle along, the the major war being waged at the 3CMC slot.

I think I’m fine with this. When you take a look at the banned and restricted lists, they are filled with instants, sorceries, enchantments and artifacts. It takes a great deal for a creature to make it on those lists. WotC seem to have found a happy medium with the 1 and 2 drop slots, are currently seeking out that same space for the 3 drop creatures, and are happy to go to town with the four-mana-and-above creatures, all of which required improvement anyway. The best of the best are still creatures from 4-6 years ago and frankly we could use the competition. Sure, I hope that the power level of non-creature cards doesn’t evaporate in the mean time (and looking at the spells in Return to Ravnica, I’m fairly confident they won’t). But right now I’m not worried about creature power creep, so long as 1 and 2 drops don’t break everything.

All eyes on Nivmagus Elemental from here.

Cycles & Mini-Cycles in M13

M13 is a super-cycle set, which I love.

There are the highlighted cycles:

  • The five Legendary creatures (Odric, Master Tactician, Talrand, Sky Summoner, Nefarox, Overlord of Grixis, Krenko, Mob Boss & Yeva’s Forcemage): These are all very nicely design, although the perfection of the cycle is a little disrupted because Nefarox is 6CMC, while the four others are 4CMC. However is effect is such that the greater casting cost is a absolute requirement – he would of been a crazy Abyss on a stick at 4CMC. Odric is the most underrated but an absolute killer in Limited. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t show up somewhere in constructed, probably as a replacement for Hero of Bladehold. Talrand is good, but not great, in Limited, as it’s harder to craft a great deck around him. Krenko is an absolute monster, especially with the high availability of Krenko’s Command. Yeva’s Forcemage is the least exciting in Limited, although it does allow for some nice combat tricks and to play around countermagic, which is a real thing in M13 Limited. I think that generally the 4CMC cost of these cards is the perfect model for a Legendary cycle in core set, and they are so much less oppresive than the Titans that they feel like a breath of fresh air.
  • The five rings (Ring of Evos Isle, Ring of Kalonia, Ring of Thune, Ring of Valkas & Ring of Xathrid). The rings are generally all good, though the red one which grants haste is certainly the weakest, and I’m not sure red even wants it over another creature. The best is probably the Black, followed nicely by the Green. I’ve had boards completely stall out in the face of a deathtouch creature with a black ring on it, and all you can do is wait until they have a 10/10 that then starts beating in on you, refusing to die. The white one is merely ok, and the blue is annoying at best, although the fact these two often go on fliers is their key advantage. But who wants to give their Aven Squire vigilance? Overall the CMC, equip costs and activation costs feel right on each of the rings.
  • The five off-colour activiation creatures (Harbor Bandit, Prized Elephant, Crimson Muckwader, Flinthoof Boar, Arctic Aven): These are all really neat in design. The one that scares me the most is Flinthoof Boar because a 3/3 on turn 2, followed by a hasty 3/3 on turn 3 is no joke. The Harbour Bandit is the best at taking down board stalls, especially because black can usually find a couple of Duty-Bound Dead to help pump it up while holding down the fort. Crimson Muckwader doesn’t excite me much, nor does the Prized Elephant, though I believe them to be fine cards.
  • The five dual lands (Dragonskull Summit, Drowned Catacomb, Glacial Fortress, Rootbound Crag, Sunpetal Grove): I’m really happy these keep getting reprinted. They work nicely in this set with the activation creatures and they help newer players build better manabases for cheap. I don’t pick them highly in limited unless I know I’m going to splash a colour, or my deck is firmly in the two colours represented and I’m not missing another pick.

What’s more interesting are the cylces (and mini-cycles) of cards that do similar things in different ways that give the format a level of consistency and redundency that make drafting a very interesting exercise.

  • The five Legendary-creature flavour spells (Crusader of Odric, Talrand’s Invocation, Servant of Nefarox, Krenko’s Command, Yeva’s Forcemage): Clearly Talrand has someone at WotC on the payroll, because he certainly got the best deal. 2 x 2/2 flyers for 2UU is fantastic and it kills me whenever I see this card go anything less than second pick. Crusader is actually very good, and it’s interesting to see how far Scion of the Wild has fallen in power level (if it ever was that powerful). Krenko’s Command is a fine card, especially in multiples, and is infinitely better with Arms Dealer and Krenko himself. Weirdly, Crusader of Odric is only marginally better with Ordic, because Ordric still needs two more critters to work properly. Yeva’s Forcemage is no Trusted Forcemage, and I can take it or leave it. Usually leave it.
  • The five key common removal spells (Pacifism, Murder, Prey Upon, Searing Spear, Unsummon): The two new cards here are Murder (which I honestly expected to be printed at BB) and Searing Spear, the slightly nerfed Incinerate. You could argue Encrust should be there in place of Unsummon, but I think Unsummon is more key to Blue in M13, due to the high levels of countermagic around. They’re all good, solid cards, and they’re all around the right power level for core set removal. However, the lack of truly great removal (eg Path to Exile, Doom Blade, Lightning BOlt) has me a little worrierd about the upcoming Standard environment when Scars rotates, but I’m sure WotC will have substitutes in Return to Ravnica.
  • The five overrun effects (Predatory Rampage, Cleaver Riot, Sleep, Safe Passage, Public Execution): It’s funny that Overrun was pushed to rare in Green, but all the other colours got Overruns (albiet worse Overruns) in common and uncommon. Cleaver Riot is a face-smashing machine that, while missing the trample, can cause amazing amounts of damage. Sleep simply removes all blockers for a turn and a half, allowing you to push the damage through. Safe Passage is the closest white gets to Overrun, but with a little effort can be just as effective offensively as defensively. Public Exeuction is the new card for Black and it is a monster. Done right you can effectively wipe their board, and usually at the worst it’s a 2-for-1. And at instant. Ka-blam!
  • The five enchantment damage-pushers (Tricks of the Trade, Mark of the Vampire, Rancor, Volcanic Strength, Angelic Benediction): Ok, it’s a super-loose cycle and probably only one in my head, but these cards are all effectively doing the same thing; pushing through damage. Mark, Tricks and Rancor (oh Rancor) are the ones that get all the discussion, largely because Volcanic Strength is relatively mediocre and Angelic Benediction is a sometimes do-nothing. I never cast any of them in M13, which says a lot about who I am (I would happily cast Rancor, but I’ve never been able to take it in draft).
  • The four token sweepers (Cower in Fear, Chandra’s Fury
    , Rain of Blades, Downpour): Sure, Downpour is the loosest card in this mini-cycle, but it’s great that four of the colours has access to this kind of effect. The casting costs feel about right, and you can get other value out of them as well: Cower in Fear as an Overrun effect; Chandra’s Fury as a straight burn spell; Rain of Blades as Aven Squire removal; Downpour as a tempo play. Incidentally Stuffy Doll, who is indestructible, can Cower in Fear and die. Flavour fail!
  • The four token makers (Fungal Sprouting, Krenko’s Command, Captain’s Call, Talrand’s Invocation): I’ve mentioned most of these above, but there is a nice little mini-cycle of sorceries here. Talrand’s got the best of it, but Captain’s Call is a fine card for anyone with either Odric or Captain of the Watch. I’ve not played with Fungal Sprouting and I’ve luckily always had the Cower in Fear against those that have, but one day it’s going to get me, and that’s fine. I still won’t play it.
  • The three mass removal spells (Planar Cleansing, Magmaquake, Mutilate): No Upheaval, blue? Regardless, the best of these is Mutilate, followed closely by Magmaquake, which is a house in the UR deck as it skips all your fliers. I’ve hit the finals with Mutilate, and lost in the finals because I misplayed Mutilate, oh it’s a fickel mistress. I’ve never seen Planar Cleansing played in any Limited format it’s been legal in, or constructed format it’s been legal in. Not even Commander.

The great thing about the design of M13 is that each of the colours generally has access to play through, around, and against their opponent’s threats. Removal, inevitability, one-shot game enders and control effects are all available, which means no matter what your native play style, you can still open a pack and have a direction to head, even if your natural colour affinity is missing. This makes for a great format, and one I’m really enjoying, both design-wise and play-wise. Well done WotC, this set is a home run.

Play Creatures, Damnit

Here’s the real reason why, post-rotation from M12 to M13, creatures will be stronger than ever.

Post-Rotation Point Removal That We Know Of Thus Far And Of Course I Know We’re Missing Return To Ravnica Cards So Get Over It

I’ve tried to list here to list removal that isn’t narrow, and is targeted.

White

Oblivion Ring [M13]
Pacifism [M13]
Divine Verdict [M13]
Banishing Stroke [AVR]
Rebuke [INN]
Righteous Blow [AVR]
Bonds of Faith [INN]
Defang [AVR]

The best of a bad bunch is Oblivion Ring, which has seen wide play in any Standard format it’s been legal in. But the lack of an unconditional 1 or 2 mana option at instant-speed is pretty terrible.

Blue

Encrust [M13]
Unsummon [M13]
Grasp of Phantoms [INN]
Silent Departure [INN]
Claustrophobia [INN]
Spectral Prison [AVR]
Vanishment [AVR]

Blue traditionally does most of its removal through counterspells, or relies on the other colours. Here we see a bunch of Sorceries and Enchantments, with only Unsummon of Vanishment at instant. Pretty lackluster, and they don’t play well with Counterspells

Black

Crippling Blight [M13]
Murder [M13]
Public Execution [M13]
Bone Splinters [AVR]
Death Wind [AVR]
Death’s Caress [DKA]
Sever the Bloodline [INN]
Tragic Slip [DKA]
Victim of Night [DKA]
Dead Weight [INN]
Ghoulflesh [AVR]

Black has many more options for at instant, from Death Wind to Murder to Tragic Slip. I don’t know if Victim of Night is playable, but it sure as hell ain’t splashable. It should be noted that Black’s mass removal is tempramental at best; Killing Wave and Barter in Blood leave a lot to be desired.

Red

Flames of the Firebrand [M13]
Searing Spear [M13]
Volcanic Geyser [M13]
Brimstone Volley [AVR]
Burning Oil [AVR]
Devil’s Play [INN]
Fires of Undeath [DKA]
Geistflame [DKA]
Into the Maw of Hell [INN]
Pillar of Flame [AVR]
Thunderous Wrath [AVR]

Red’s removal suffers from what Red’s removal has always suffered from; scaling badly with the power level of creatures. However, Red currently has the best mass removal available, including Bonfire of the Damned, Blasphemous Act and Magmaquake.

Green

Prey Upon [INN, M13]

Maybe Uvanwald Tracker should be on the list, but you get the point.

So What?

What’s this all mean? Well, people are either going to be tapping out for their removal, or having to wait until Turn 3 or 4 to use it. This means that creatures are so much better, and counter-spells are so much worse.

Ok, we don’t know what Ravnica will bring. Maybe it’ll be a return to Swords to Plowshares, Doom Blade and Lightning Bolt. But if the removal is even middling, then the attractiveness of playing creatures is even greater.

Battlecruiser Magic? More like Star Destroyer magic.

AVR Draft Curiosity

I played a AVR 4322 yesterday and had a very strange draft where the number of creatures in each pack felt very, very low. No packs had more than 8 creatures, and most had between 0 and 2, generally of the ‘unplayable’ variety.

Here’s the breakdown of packs with the number of creatures available. The third pack was positively barren.

P1P1 – 6 Creatures
P1P2 – 8 Creatures
P1P3 – 2 Creatures
P1P4 – 4 Creatures
P1P5 – 5 Creatures
P1P6 – 0 Creatures
P1P7 – 4 Creatures
P1P8 – 2 Creatures
P1P9 – 1 Creature
P1P10 – 2 Creatures
P1P11 – 1 Creature
P1P12 – 1 Creature
P1P13 – 0 Creatures
P1P14 – 0 Creatures

P2P1 – 7 Creatures
P2P2 – 5 Creatures
P2P3 – 8 Creatures
P2P4 – 5 Creatures
P2P5 – 2 Creatures
P2P6 – 1 Creature
P2P7 – 2 Creatures
P2P8 – 3 Creatures
P2P9 – 1 Creature
P2P10 – 2 Creatures
P2P11 – 2 Creatures
P2P12 – 1 Creature
P2P13 – 0 Creatures
P2P14 – 0 Creatures

P3P1 – 4 Creatures
P3P2 – 5 Creatures
P3P3 – 4 Creatures
P3P4 – 6 Creatures
P3P5 – 1 Creature
P3P6 – 3 Creatures
P3P7 – 1 Creature
P3P8 – 2 Creatures
P3P9 – 1 Creature
P3P10 – 0 Creatures
P3P11 – 0 Creatures
P3P12 – 0 Creatures
P3P13 – 0 Creatures
P3P14 – 0 Creatures

I’m noticed that in AVR I generally have a terrible creature count after pack 1 (taking as much tasty tasty removal as possible) and have to scramble for creatures in packs 2 and 3. It may well be the case where creature priority is a must in picks 1-8 with spells as a pickup picks 9-14.

Curious if others are seeing the same things.

Avacyn Restored (AVR) Draft Archetypes

I probably haven’t done enough AVR drafts yet to write about this (goodbye the 87% of you who just stopped reading) but I thought I’d write about some of the key AVR draft archetypes.

Initially I was very worried about the format; it seemed swingy and unfun on paper. Then I started playing and became very worried about the format, largely because I kept on losing.

However, the more I play, the more I notice how smart it is, and how much it rewards smart drafters and players. The signals are very hard to read, largely because the first 3-6 packs usually seem insane, but the rest are generally dreck. That means if you’ve read the signals wrong, you’ve wasted a pack, no matter if it comes around twice. This creates sub-standard decks amongst the weaker players, and therefore unfun game situations where one player dominates. Hopefully, as people learn the format, these things will slowly disappear and signaling will become a lot stronger.

Below I’ve noted key commons/uncommons that you’ll find in any draft, and the rares you open that might push you in that direction.

I’ll also note that many decks will end up containing elements of a number of these archetypes, as they end up sharing a number of cards across the builds.

Blue/Green Soulbond

This a very aggressive strategy that can put a lot of early pressure on, then finish things with Lumberknots soulbonded to Wingcrafters. Can blow out oppontents with Joint Assault and gets serious benefit out of Tandem Lookouts and Nightshade Peddlers.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Wingcrafter, Trusted Forcemate, Druid’s Familiar, Flowering Lumberknot, Nephalia Smuggler, Timberland Guide, Ghostly Flicker, Tandem Lookout

Suggestive Rares: Deadeye Navigator, Wolfir Silverheart

Blue/Green Aggro Tempo-Control

Yes, it has a healthy overlap with Soulbond, but it’s more a straight bash-face strategy, both in the air and on the ground, with a healthy amount of tempo-based ‘bounce’ cards, such as Mist Raven, Into the Void and Vanishment. Smushing Blessings of Nature onto a Wandering Wolf or Latch Seeker forces your opponent to come up with answers, fast.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Mist Raven, Blessings of Nature, Fettergeist, Latch Seeker, Wandering Wolf, Vanishment, Peel from Reality, Into the Void

Suggestive Rares: Captain of the Mists, Devastation Tide, Revenge of the Hunted, Spirit Away

Loner Black

A high varience strategy based around the ‘loner’ mechanic, this strategy feels somewhat bizarre to draft, however can be very brutal when done right. You don’t even need to be getting full value out of your Bone Splinters to keep the pressure on from Demonic Taskmaster or any creature with Homicidal Seclusion.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Barter in Blood, Bone Splinters, Death Wind, Demonic Taskmaster, Homicidal Seclusion, Corpse Traders, and as many Ghoul Flesh as you can get.

Suggestive Rares: Demonic Rising, Demonlord of Ashmouth, Treacherous Pit-Dweller

Suicide Black

The best under-the-radar archetype, it relies on attacking your opponent’s life total from alternate angles than just combat damage. It’s well supported by direct damage from red (eg. Thunderous Wrath) and can appear to win out of nowhere.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Blood Artist, Bloodflow Connoisseur, Butcher Ghoul, Soulcage Fiend, Marrow Bats

Suggestive Rares: Exquisite Blood, Killing Wave

Attrition Black

Attrition Black plays a long game, grinding out wins by slowly and carefully neutering opponents. It’s another high-risk strategy as there are so many swingy cards in AVR (Entreat the Angels, I’m looking at you) that you can still find a loss even after locking down a board. The deck seeks out as many two-for-ones as possible. This is one deck that Nephalia Smuggler works very well in, as it resets all the undying creatures.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Barter in Blood, Butcher Ghoul, Undead Executioner, Driver of the Dead, Evernight Shade, Grave Exchange, Maalfeld Twins, Necrobite

Suggestive Rares: Dark Imposter, Dread Slaver, Harvester of Souls

Red/White Humans

The Boros deck you’re probably most familiar with, it simply tries to out-aggro everything else. This deck has a lot of supporting cards, and if you can get Riot Ringleader + Goldnight Commander + Thatcher Revolt on the table, you’ve near guaranteed a win. Can have a little trouble in the late game, or against an opponent with a hand full of Ghoulflesh’s, but is generally too fast to stop.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Fervant Cathar, Goldnight Commander, Hanweir Lancer, Kessig Malcontents, Kruin Striker, Lightning Mauler, Moorland Inquisitor, Riot Ringleader, Somberwald Vigilante, Thatcher Revolt, Thraben Valiant, Vigilante Justice

Suggestive Rares: Angel of Glories Rise, Cathar’s Crusade, Silverblade Paladin, Riders of Gavony, Zealous Conscripts

Red/Green Aggro

The archetype isn’t that great, but it gets the job done (Update: I’ve had feedback on Twitter that people are having success with R/G). One of the better cards in the archetype is actually a vampire, Falkenrath Exterminator, largely because you can pair it with Nightshade Peddler. Usually needs a high impact rare finisher, such as Bonfire of the Damned or Burn at the Stake. The fact that it’s cards get stolen by WR Humans and UG Whatever often makes it the poorer cousin.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Falkenrath Exterminator, Nightshade Peddler, Gloomwidow, Borderland Ranger, Howlgeist, Thunderbolt, Pillar of Flame, Triumph of Ferocity, Wolfir Avenger

Suggestive Rares: Champion of Lambholt, Bonfire of the Damned, Burn at the Stake, Ulvenwald Tracker, Wolfir Silverheart, Craterhoof Beheamoth

White/Blue Fliers

Ye Olde Archetype returns in AVR draft and is as good as usual. Control the ground, rule the skys, push through damage while your opponent stalls. Generally wins once it survives the early rush of the aggro decks as only black has the tools to deal with everything it has to offer.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Emancipation Angel, Fettergeist, Gryff Vanguard, Mist Raven, Into the Void, Scrapskin Drake, Seraph of Dawn, Vanishment, Defang, Angel’s Tomb

Suggestive Rares: Misthollow Griffin, Restoration Angel, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

Angels

Angels aims to go big or go home. It effectively needs to ramp to it’s 6CMC+ flyers that eventually dominate the game. There’s always someone in Angels, or at the very least fighting for them with UW Fliers, so you often need to take sub-par cards to help you survive to the early turns (such as Catherdral Sanctifier).

Key Commons/Uncommons: Angelic Wall, Banishing Stroke, Cathedral Sanctifier, Defang, Farbog Explorer, Goldnight Redeemer, Voice of the Provinces, Vessel of Endless Rest

Suggestive Rares: Herald of War, Restoration Angel, Divine Deflection, Terminus, Avacyn, Angel of Hope, Divine Deflection, Entreat the Angels, Bruna, Light of Alabaster, Gisela, Blade of Goldnight, Sigarda, Host of Herons

Mill

Yes, Mill is an Archetype, and it works. Naturally you’ll have to go blue, then choose what you’re going to do to support your mill cards (eg. black/red removal, white lifegain/defenders, green durdles). But it really does work, and not just in Sealed. Stern Mentor is a surprising clock, especially when paired with a Elgaud Shieldmate.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Stern Mentor, Dreadwaters, Crippling Chill, Defang, Peel from Reality, Alchemist’s Apprentice, Elgaud Shieldmate, Fleeting Distraction, Galvanic Alchemist

Suggestive Rares: Captain of the Mists, Devastation Tide, Temporal Mastery, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage, Stolen Goods

Blue/Red Aggro

A few people have a had success with fast Blue/Red aggro builds, generally built around humans. T1 Wingcrafter, T2 Falkenrath Exterminator (given flying), T3 Tandem Lookout seems like a dream draw that few other decks could beat. You get to bounce things with Mist Raven while continuing to smash in, but I’m not sure it’s better than going straight Blue/Green. At least in Blue/Red you get a little range with Thunderous Wrath and Pillar of Flame.

Key Commons/Uncommons: Pillar of Flame, Thunderous Wrath, Tandem Lookout, Falkenrath Exterminator, Wingcrafter, Lightning Mauler, Mist Raven, Fettergeist, Into the Void, Latch Seeker.

Suggestive Rares: Archwing Dragon, Bonfire of the Damned, Deadeye Navigator, Reforge the Soul, Zealous Conscripts

The Rest

There’s a few colour combinations not discussed here: Black/White, Blue/Black, Black/Red, Black/Green (which are usually mono-black spashing the other colour) and White/Green, but I haven’t seen a great archetype for them yet. No doubt they will appear, in time, though usually they will end up as goodstuff.decs, rather than archetypes.

Modern Rock Loam Deathcloud Harvest

Right now I’ve been tinkering with B/G in Modern. The deck is very grindy, the kind of deck where incremental advantage is leveraged to the utmost. It rewards good play, punishes mistakes, and is generally pretty fun.

I wanted to get a feel for whether I should be playing Tarmogoyf or Tombstalker in the deck, so I took a look at some representative G/B Rockish decks.

There are a number of B/G archetypes floating around, namely Deathcloud, The Rock, Pox and Loam. I wanted to do an analysis of which cards each of the decks consistently play. Here are some representative decks. Before the list, here’s a link to the analysis of the decks in Google docs.

CREATURES (12)
Tarmogoyf
Sakura-Tribe Elder
Kitchen Finks
Eternal Witness

INSTANTS and SORCERIES (21)
Thoughtseize
Green Sun’s Zenith
Putrefy
Death Cloud
Maelstrom Pulse
Damnation
Go for the Throat
Doom Blade
Dismember

OTHER SPELLS (3)
Garruk Wildspeaker

LANDS (24)
Overgrown Tomb
Swamp
Treetop Village
Verdant Catacombs
Forest
Twilight Mire
Dryad Arbor
Oran-Rief, the Vastwood
Golgari Rot Farm

SIDEBOARD (15)
Kitchen Finks
Ghost Quarter
Viridian Shaman
Krosan Grip
Extirpate
Cranial Extraction
Duress
Memoricide

Wirecat’s B/G/r Death Cloud Rock (Top 8 Modern PTQ Barcelona)

CREATURES (7)
Tarmogoyf
Haakon, Stromgald Scourge

INSTANTS AND SORCERIES (24)
Nameless Inversion
Death Cloud
Raven’s Crime
Inquisition of Kozilek
Life from the Loam
Smallpox
Burning Vengeance

OTHER SPELLS (5)
Garruk Wildspeaker
Liliana of the Veil

LANDS (24)
Swamp
Lavaclaw Reaches
Tectonic Edge
Blood Crypt
Graven Cairns
Overgrown Tomb
Blackcleave Cliffs
Twilight Mire
Verdant Catacombs
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

SIDEBOARD (15)
Ancient Grudge
Damnation
Engineered Explosives
Forest
Nature’s Claim
Nihil Spellbomb
Victim of Night

Tristan Polzl Legacy G/B/w Rock (#2 Finale de la Coupe de France Legacy)

CREATURES (12)
Tarmogoyf
Dark Confidant
Knight of the Reliquary

INSTANTS and SORCERIES (15)
Hymn to Tourach
Swords to Plowshares
Vindicate
Thoughtseize
Inquisition of Kozilek

OTHER SPELLS (9)
Sensei’s Divining Top
Mox Diamond
Liliana of the Veil

LANDS (24)
Verdant Catacombs
Wasteland
Marsh Flats
Scrubland
Bayou
Swamp
Karakas
Bojuka Bog
Forest
Plains
Maze of Ith

SIDEBOARD (15)
Tower of the Magistrate
Engineered Explosives
Gaddock Teeg
Darkblast
Diabolic Edict
Ghastly Demise
Surgical Extraction
Duress
Ethersworn Canonist

krazykirby4's Tarmopox (# 1 MTGO Modern Daily (#3193257))

CREATURES (17)
Tarmogoyf
Dark Confidant
Augur of Skulls
Kitchen Finks
Nyxathid

INSTANTS and SORCERIES (16)
Smallpox
Thoughtseize
Inquisition of Kozilek
Smother
Maelstrom Pulse

OTHER SPELLS (4)
Liliana of the Veil

LANDS (23)
Swamp
Verdant Catacombs
Treetop Village
Mutavault
Overgrown Tomb
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Forest
Marsh Flats

SIDEBOARD (15)
Kitchen Finks
Maelstrom Pulse
Damnation
Deathmark
Extirpate
Go for the Throat
Krosan Grip
Surgical Extraction
Thrun, the Last Troll

Micah Greenbaum's G/B/r/w Aggro Loam (# 1 Star City Games Legacy Denver)

SIDEBOARD (15)
Life from the Loam
Devastating Dreams
Choke
Leyline of the Void
Reverent Silence
Perish
Chainer’s Edict
Red Elemental Blast
Nomad Stadium

Some quick thoughts:

1. No-one plays Tombstalker. It turns out Tombstalker is really only played in Team America/Team Portugal B/U decks to maximise counter-spell usage.
2. Everyone plays Tarmogoyf
3. Many of the decks lean on a third (or fourth) colour to compete.

So what are the Top 9 cards the archetypes have in common?

1. Tarmogoyf (19)
2. Dark Confidant (12)
3. Thoughtsieze (11)
4. Liliana of the Veil (10)
5. Knight of the Reliquary (8)
6. Smallpox (8)
7. Inquisition of Kozilek (8)
8. Life from the Loam (7)
9. Mox Diamond (7)

That’s on raw figures. I’d note at this point that most decks build on internal synergies from there, eg. Punishing Fire / Grove of the Burnwillows, Death Cloud / Kitchen Finks, Haakon, Stromgald Scourge / Nameless Inversion.

If we take consolidate cards based on overlapping function due to card restrictions between Modern and Legacy and account for these little synergies, the numbers change a little. Here’s what the Top 9 cards would look like.

1. Finishers/Combo (28)
2. Instant-Speed Removal (20)
3. Tarmogoyf (19)
4. 1 Mana Discard Spell (18)
5. Mana Acceleration/Advantage (17)
6. 2 Mana Disruption Spell (16)
7. Planeswalker (14)
8. Dark Confidant (12)
9. ‘Kill Anything/Everything’ Sorcery (11)

Which, in Modern, creates a deck that looks as follows:

1. Something
2. 4 Doom Blade (or equivalent)
3. 4 Tarmogoyf
4. 4 Thoughtsieze (or Raven’s Crime or Inquisition of Kozilek)
5. 4 Life from the Loam (or Sakura-Triber Elder)
6. 4 Smallpox (or Augur of Skulls)
7. 4 Liliana of the Veil (plus possibly a Garruk)
8. 4 Dark Confidant
9. 2 Maelstrom Pulse (plus possibly a Damnation)

Which leaves behind the ‘something’, of which Knight of the Reliquary is probably the best, backed up in this archetype by a singleton Wurm Harvest, although admittedly it doesn’t play well with Dark Confidant. Here’s what a more streamlined deck might look like, bearing in mind just how much damage we might do to ourselves with Bob.

G/B/w Modern Rock Loam Deathcloud Harvest

CREATURES (12)
Tarmogoyf
Dark Confidant
Knight of the Reliquary

INSTANTS AND SORCERIES (20)
Thoughtsieze
Raven’s Crime
Life from the Loam
Smallpox
Go for the Throat
Maelstrom Pulse
Worm Harvest
Death Cloud

OTHER CARDS (4)
Liliana of the Veil

LANDS (23)
Overgrown Tomb
Verdant Catacombs
Marsh Flats
Temple Garden
Treetop Village
Tectonic Edge
Bojuka Bog
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Twilight Mire
Mutavault

The sideboard would be some number of Kitchen Finks, Krosan Grips, Extirpates, Engineered Explosives, Gaddok Teegs, Grafdigger’s Cage, Surgical Extraction, etc, depending upon your metagame.

I have to confess, the consolidated list does seem like quite the spicy brew. You can head down the Rock axis and grind out the win with Bobs, Gofts and disruption. You can go down the Pox access and build a super-large Knight of the Reliquary. You can head down the Worm Harvest axis and win with a million 1/1s, or down the Death Cloud axis and win with an opponent who is just dead on the board.

I think it’s worth testing just to see how it performs. It certainly <i>looks</i> powerful, and the various archetypes it has mashed up are pretty proven. Time to test, I guess.

Creature Features

Creature Features

I want to say the trend started in Zendikar, but I guess it started with these:





Which are all creature-based reprints of older, much loved cards, namely:





Perhaps they were an accidental lead indicator of things to come, perhaps they were a trial run of a particular strategy by WotC. Either way, they were limited bombs, but only a few saw constructed tournament play (mainly Magus of the Moon and briefly Magus of the Bazaar). But they did prove one thing; appropriately costed, and placed on the most frail of permanents, the creature, old spells of the past could be reborn as new cards.

Although Shards of Alara had a couple of old effects on new cards, for example Flameblast Dragon, the trend wasn’t truly cemented until Zendikar. It introduced various “pseudo-reprints” of old power.

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The trend had truly begun in earnest, and the most revealing part was that these cards did not dominate the tournament landscape in the same way their predecessors did – at least until the true power behind Stoneforge Mystic was discovered.

In M11 the approach of putting old power effects on creatures became apparently, most obviously with Fauna Shaman / Survival of the Fittest.

M11 also introduced the Titan cycle.


It’s hard to compare the titans to any one particular card. The easiest is certainly Inferno Titan, which mimics Arc Trail and Firebreathing. Next is Primeval Titan, which mimics Explosive Vegetation, but without the “basic land” clause. Next easiest is Frost Titan, as a mix of Rune Snag and Apathy. Then Grave Titan, riffing on the long line of zombie token generators such as Zombie Infestation and Sarcomancy. The only Titan without a direct link to another card is Sun Titan, which has a relatively uniquely constrained effect.

The Titans, however, were not tied directly to power in the same way Fauna Shaman and Warren Instigator were, but they did set a new bar for how high the power level of creatures could go.

New Phyrexia continued the trend, far more intentionally than ever. Regardless of “infected” versions of older cards, such as Blightsteel Colossus and Viridian Corrupter, old power continued to be reprinted on the largest of the creatures.

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And now in M12 we have had further reinforcement of this phenomenon.

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Certainly WotC have learned their lessons well. Mana costs are (generally) kept high in order to keep the card interesting, yet largely relegated to casual formats. The effects are kept on easy-to-kill creatures in order to make them removal-sensitive; traditionally, enchantments and artifacts have been harder to deal. And they are certainly keeping powerful effects away from raw instants and sorceries.

So where will this lead? Certainly there are a lot of cards to plunder. Wheel of Fortune is a viable card to see as a Enter-The-Battlefield effect on a creature, as would Yawgmoth’s Bargain and Yawgmoth’s Will, though you’d have to wonder what the mana costs would be. You might argue we’ve already had Ancestral Recall as Sphinx of Lost Truths (or even Consecrated Sphinx), and it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Wish spell, which I think would suit a creature nicely. Now that we have Rune Scarred Demon, how long until we get Merchant Scroll or Brainstorm on a creature?

The trend in undeniable. Although many of the creatures have not had a massive impact on constructed environments, those that have made in-roads (the Titans, Fauna Shaman, Stoneforge Mystic) have certainly created waves and warped formats around them.

It will be interesting to see how the trend will continue with Innistrad block. I’m holding out for Necropotence on a stick, although I’m also not holding my breath.