Early DGM/GTC/RTR Impressions & Three Colour Drafting Strategy

Ok, I’ll admit it, I’m pretty fascinated about the Dragon’s Maze/Gatecrash/Return to Ravnica draft format. It’s incredibly deep, quite thoughtful, and relatively well balanced.

The pack flow makes perfect sense once you understand it. I’ve put together a little ‘cheat sheet’ to help people figure out what’s happening in the draft, as demonstrated below.

I don’t believe it makes sense to try to force two colours, as it means in one of the packs you’re effectively drafting the mono-coloured cards, and the mono-coloured cards are simply of lesser power than the gold cards. Why would you want to hamstring yourself like that?

In my mind, the best strategy is to either see what three colours are strongest in your first pack and draft along those lines, or to force one of the better three-colour combinations from the start.

Which begs the question, what are the best three-colour combinations to force?

There are 10 three-colour combinations, five of which are drafted in a 3-2-1 sequence (three guilds in the first pack, two in the second, one in the third) and five of which are drafted in a 3-1-2 sequence, as demonstrated above. Each of the three colour combinations lands with a different set of keywords and synergies. I’ve outlined those, and my impression of them, in the graphic below.

From what I can tell so far – and I have not had a great deal of experience beyond anyone else – the three-colour cobminations in the 3-2-1 sequence are stronger than those in the 3-1-2 sequence. In addition, there are two guilds in particular where the reward is higher for forcing those colours early in DGM and GTC, and two more guilds that generally lead to positive results.

Part of the reason I prefer the 3-2-1 sequence to the 3-1-2 sequence is that the mono-coloured cards in RTR are(generally) stronger than those in GTC (though there are exactly the same number). Remember the RTR mono-coloured cards? In black alone you had Stab Wound, Thrill-Kill Assassin, Ultimate Price, Dead Reveler, Desecration Demon and… oh that’s right, Pack Rat.

Importantly, the format will eventually be seen as defined by its two-for-ones, of which there are many (Far/Away, Scab-Clan Giant, Ubul Sar Gatekeepers, etc). This should be brought to mind whenever thinking about the draft format.

Let’s start with the two most highly rewarding guilds to draft in Packs 1 & 2: Orzhov and Boros. These two guilds have access to the most of the premium removal, some of the most absurd bombs, and generally high-quality commons and uncommons.

Drafting Orzhov in the first pack should lead down one of two paths; either supplementing with Boros/Rackos if going aggressive, or Dimir/Azorius if going disruptive/evasive. Both these paths will leade to very good results, as both those three-colour combinations are two of the three that I currently consider ‘the best’. Both these paths give you some draft freedom in the second pack as you are still picking up two different guilds. The third pack you’ll either settle on Rakdos or Azorious. Rakdos and Selesnya were the premium guilds in raw Return to Ravnica, but I think populate suffers with the loss of good token makers in the Gatecrash pack. The power of Unleash, however, isn’t hurt by absence of other Unleash creatures, so Rakdos’ power level is maintained.

Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos is the most aggressive deck in the format. It includes creatures with excellent CMC to Power ratios, the most efficient removal, and the most absurd bombs (a snapshot: Aurelia, the Warleader, Obzedat, Ghost Council, Blood Baron of Vizkopa, Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch, Master of Cruelties, Sire of Insanity, Tajic, Blade of the Legion, Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts, Angel of Serenity, Angelic Skirmisher, Assemble the Legion, Boros Battleshaper, Boros Reckoner, Deathpact Angel, Firemane Avenger, etc etc… I mean it, etc, etc… like Mizzium Mortars, Pack Rat, it just keeps going…). With three packs you get a very real chance of drafting a deck capable of simply burning your opponent out, especially when combined with Extort. Between the early fast rush, the late game bombs, the excellent removal, and the abilty to win any race through Extort, Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos is probably the best deck in the format.

If you’re comfortable in the control space then Orzhov / Dimir / Azorius is for you, being able to pick up some of the best removal/disruption in the format, while building an excellent flash/counterspell/removal shell (think Deputy of Acquittals/Hussar Patrol/Skyline Predator/Counterspells) makes the Esper space very powerful. Cards such as Inspiration help you have something to do while holding up counterspell mana, and once-underpowered utility creatures such as Bane Alley Broker get a lot better in the shell.

Drafting Boros either leads to the Orzhov/Rakdos path I’ve already covered, or the powerful Boros / Gruul / Selesnya trio, the third of the what I currently consider the best three-colour combinations. Again, this is a 3-2-1 path where, knowing you’ll end up in Selesnya, cards such as Bronzebeak Moa and Trostani’s Summoner gain in value (noting that the Summoner is a powerful Battalion enabler). The downside of throwing away creatures on Bloodrush is negated by the fact you’re gaining extra tokens over time through populate, and your generally-bigger creatures helps turn on Battalion. The ability to also protect your Battalion through Bloodrush, or have creatures to trigger Battalion through Populate is also highly synergistic.

However, both Orzhov and Boros can lead down uncomfortable paths. For Orzhov this is Junk, where you end up with Orzhov / Golgari / Selesnya, which is relively anti-syneristic. You have a lot of mana sinks, none of which work terribly well together. Extort wants spells, and spending mana to Populate or Scavenge doesn’t help the trigger. There is some synergy between having getting creatures to Scavange onto with Populate, but the mana costs involved are rather exhorbitant, and you’d probably rather just have another creature anyway.

Meanwhile Boros can lead to Boros / Azorius / Izzet, which is an Aggro Control deck that ends up highly reliant on instants and sorciers, as place that Boros doesn’t want to be, as it relies heavily on creatures. Izzet creatures don’t generally both attack and play creatures at the same time (see Frostburn Weird, Nivix Cyclops, Aetherling, Fluxcharger, etc). Battalion is happy to work with Azorious’s evasive flyers, but overall the trio feel like they are pulling against each other. I’ll note here that both Orzhov / Golgari / Selesnya and Boros / Azorius / Izzet are 3-1-2 decks.

An alternate strategy is to cast your lot with Simic. Each of the three Simic strategies are relatively solid affairs. My prefer choice would be Simic / Gruul / Izzet rooted firmly in Ramp. Both the Gruul and Izzet creatures are fairly reliable at triggering Evolve, and the ability to ramp helps to find the mana for maximising Overload effects. With an early rush, and some of the biggest creatures on the board, it doesn’t matter whether your finisher is a Mizzium Mortars, Teleportal, Blusterquall or Dragonshift, the effect is the same: your opponent loses. This is another 3-2-1 path.

Simic can also head down the Simic / Selesnya / Azorious path. Although it’s a 3-1-2 path, it can work as the Simic cards in Gatecrash are generally strong enough to support it. The advantages are you have access to populate in order to regularly trigger Evolve, especially in battle. However you need the right Populate cards to do it – Seller of Songbirds isn’t going to cut it. Nor, generally, will the Azorius cards, though there is some utility in being able to Evolve with a flash creature (one imagines flashing in and out a Deputy of Acquittals to keep the Evolve triggers coming).

The third Simic path is Simic / Dimir / Golgari, which opens the path to decent removal and a solid ‘+1/+1 counters matter’ theme. The addition of Dimir’s evasive creatures means you have the opportunity to draft an entirely unblockable deck, including Sewer Shambler, Woodlot Crawler, AEtherling, Elusive Krasis, Soulsworn Spirit, Deathcult Rogue, Spire Tracer, which frankly sounds like an utter nightmare to play against. Combine that with some advantage from the +1/+1 counters floating around and you end up with a deck with a lot of inevitability.

That leaves two other decks. The penultimate deck is Gruul / Rakdos / Golgari, which I will dub “Team Never-Block”. You get some excellent aggressive starts that are backed up by Bloodrush and late-game Scavenge. You are really of a one-track mind with this deck, “attack”. Should you ever have to slow down, you can’t expect to have that many evasive creatures to push through. This is tempered a little by the best access to deathtouch to push through damage, or falling back on trading/scavenge. You also have some premium removal with Putrefy, red’s multitude of burn spells, and the black standards such as Grisly Spectacle and Ultimate Price. It’s a little hard to draft, being a 3-1-2 path, but probably worth attempting.

The last deck is a hot mess, Dimir / Izzet / Rakdos. It’s a deck that doesn’t know what it wants to be doing. You’d think that cipher would have a lot of synergy with Izzet, but the timing of the triggers is all wrong. Izzet wants to trigger before you hit your opponent, not after, which ends up with disappointing results. Meanwhile Rakdos, which has been desperate to just attack attack attack isn’t getting much support other than some good removal – the best being Far/Away and Turn/Burn. Maybe – just maybe – those two cards alone are enough to save the combination, but don’t think anyone’s going to be passing them to you that often. This is the worst of the worst path, a 3-1-2 that ends up with a real dog’s breakfast.

So that’s my early-impression breakdown of the 10 three-colour guild combinations. I don’t think it’s advisable to push a two-colour combination across all three packs, as you’re ultimately missing out on high-value cards for the sake of mana consistency, and I don’t think the packs are deep enough to support having a strong enough curve to make that worthwile.

My last note is on one of the first things I mentioned, about the format being defined by its two-for-ones. I think that when drafting you should take not of you ability to maximise your two-for-ones. Orzhov / Dimir / Azorius, for instance, has access to Deputy of Acquittals, which can help you gain extra value from your Sin Collectors & Ubul Sar Gatekeepers, while also blanking your opponents’ removal. At common and uncommon, Boros / Gruul / Selesnya has access Blaze Commando, Rootborn Defenses and populate cards such as Scab-Clan Giant, Sunhome Guildmage & Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage to generate incremental advantage over time. When you can’t just draft Orzhov / Boros / Rakdos and run your opponent over, the ability to survive the early game and then build advantage over time is critical. In many ways, DGM/GTC/RTR is going to a battle of attrition and the deck that knows how it’s going to build an advantage will have various benefits over one that doesn’t.

I’ll come back to visit all this as the format becomes more clearly defined, if nothing else than to figure out where I went wrong. For instance, I probably underestimate Grixis’ ability to thrive in a format insisting on value plays. The fun will be finding out just how wrong I got it. Good luck out there!

Gatecrash Draft Best Cards

Based on my experience (basically drafting this non-stop for a week, so your mileage may vary), here’s my opinion on the best cards in GTC Limited.

Common

Mono-White: Court Street Denizen (runners up – Syndic of Tithes, Smite)
Mono-Blue: Frilled Oculus (runners up – Hands of Binding, Keymaster Rogue)
Mono-Black: Basilica Screecher (runners up – Grisly Spectacle, Balustrade Spy)
Mono-Red: Mugging (runners up – Madcap Skills, Warmind Infantary)
Mono-Green: Slaughterhorn (runners up – Disciple of the Old Ways, Ivy Lane Denizen)

Boros: Skynight Legionaire (runners up – Martial Glory, Wojek Halberdiers)
Orzhov: Kingpin’s Pet
Dimir: Deathcult Rogue
Simic: Drakewing Krasis (runners up – Shambleshark)
Gruul: Zhur-Taa Swine (runners up – Pit Fight)

Best: Zhur-Taa Swine, Court Street Denizen, Mugging, Kingpin’s Pet.

Uncommon

Mono-White: Guardian of the Gateless (runners up – Righteous Charge, Urbis Protector)
Mono-Blue: Sapphire Drake (runners up – Aetherize, Rapid Hybridisation)
Mono-Black: Killing Glare (runners up – Thrull Parasite, Wight of Precinct Six)
Mono-Red: Firefist Striker (runners up – Homing Lightning, Hellraiser Goblin)
Mono-Green: Crowned Ceratok (runners up – Experiment One)

Boros: Sunhome Guildmage (runners up – Boros Charm, Truefire Paladin)
Orzhov: One Thousand Lashes (runners up – Orzhov Charm, Gift of Orzhova)
Dimir: Dimir Charm (runners up – Dinrova Horror)
Simic: Zameck Guildmage (runners up – Simic Charm, Nimbus Swimmer)
Gruul: Ghor-Clan Rampager (runners up – Ground Assult, Gruul Charm. Special mention to Burning-Tree Emissary, who becomes very good with three or more.)

Best: Sunhome Guildmage, Ghor-Clan Rampager, Killing Glare

Rare

Mono-White: Angelic Skirmisher (runners up – Frontline Medic, Blind Obedience)
Mono-Blue: Simic Manipulator (runners up – Stolen Identity)
Mono-Black: Ogre Slumlord
Mono-Red: Five-Alarm Fire (runners up – Legion Loyalist, Molten Primordial)
Mono-Green: Ooze Flux (runners up – Gyre Sage)

Boros: Boros Reckoner (runners up – Firemane Avenger, Assemble The Legion)
Orzhov: Merciless Eviction (runners up – High Priest of Penance, Treasury Thrull)
Dimir: Soul Ransom (runners up – Nightveil Specter, Consuming Aberration)
Simic: Biomass Mutation (runners up – Fathom Mage)
Gruul: Clan Defiance (runners up – Rubblebelt Raiders, Rubblehulk)

Best: Clan Defiance, Ooze Flux, Boros Reckoner

Mythic

Note: Most of these are the only card in their category.

Mono-White: Gideon, Champion of Justice
Mono-Blue: None
Mono-Black: None
Mono-Red: Hellkite Tyrant
Mono-Green: Giant Adephage

Boros: Aurelia’s Fury
Orzhov: Obzedat, Ghost Council (runners up – Deathpact Angel)
Dimir: Duskmantle Seer (runners up – Lazav, Dimir Mastermind)
Simic: Master Biomancer (runners up – Prime Speaker Zegana)
Gruul: Domri Rade

Best: Duskmantle Seer, Aurelia’s Fury, Domri Rade

Two Decks

Gatecrash has me toying with deckbuild again, though I’m not sure why.

First up is one I’ve titled “X-Men”. I’ve been really, really enjoying playing this deck with the current Standard cards, and the manabase only gets better once Gatecrash is released.

This is a classic (non-prison) control deck that slows the tempo of the early game to allow you to play back-breaking late game spells. At the high end it runs the most powerful non-green cards in Standard – Sphinx’s Revelation, Bonfire of the Damned, Entreat the Angels, Jace, Architect of Thought, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage and Chandra, the Firebrand who is excellent in the deck. At the low-end it runs Azorius Charm and Izzet Charm for supreme flexibility in either nuking early plays, running groun interference, or ensuring land-drops are made.

This deck really wants to find a home for Aurelia’s Fury and to make sure it has a way to kill Frontline Medic reliably, without resorting to wraths. Mizzum Mortars may well be the best option in this regard. It also currently has a hard time with non-creature permanents you don’t manage to counter, thus the Detention Sphere in the sideboard.

X-Men: A Standard Deck

Instants (20)
Azorius Charm
Izzet Charm
Think Twice
Syncopate
Sphinx’s Revelation

Sorceries (12)
Supreme Verdict
Terminus
Entreat the Angels
Bonfire of the Damned

Planeswalkers (4)
Chandra, the Firebrand
Jace, Architect of Thought
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

Lands (24)
Clifftop Retreat
Glacial Fortress
Hallowed Fountain
Sulfur Falls
Steam Vents
Plains
Island
Possible Sideboard Cards (0)
Dispel
Gideon
Vanishment
Detention Sphere
Snapcaster Mage
Psychic Spiral
Divine Deflection

A second deck is my attempt at a post-Seething-Song-ban Modern Storm list.

Post-Ban Storm: A Modern List

Creatures (4)
Goblin Electromancer

Enchantments (4)
Pyromancer Ascension

Instants (17)
Noxious Revival
Desperate Ritual
Pyretic Ritual
Peer Through Depths
Manamorphose

Sorceries (18)
Gitaxian Probe
Grapeshot
Epic Experiment
Sleight of Hand
Serum Visions
Past in Flames

Lands (17)
Scalding Tarn
Steam Vents
Sulfur Falls
Gemstone Mine
Mountain
Island

Yes, the deck is a bit of a glass cannon, but you are perfectly capable of going off on T3, though T4 is a lot more consistent. Effectively you need to play and stick either Electromancer or Pyromancer Ascension. Either one is enough to get the combo going (Electromancer may even be a little more reliable than Pyromancer). The question here is usually whether 4 Slight/1 Serum is better than 4 Serum/1 Slight, but only testing will reveal it.

For the sideboard I’d suggest the usual; Echoing Truth, Pact of Negation (which you’re never paying for), Ancient Grudge, Izzet Charm perhaps if you need to force through either Electromaner or Pyromancer, though urgh, it’s a stretch.

Storm isn’t dead (as neither is Jund), although the nerf hurts considerably. But if every deck capable of winning on T3 is getting nuked, then a deck like this that is still capable of winning on T3 has an advantage – especially if no-one is expecting to see it.

The Unofficial Guide to The Official Miser’s Guide

There are few writers of great enough stature to inject themselves into every story. David Foster Wallace. Hunter S. Thompson. Truman Capote. Jack Kerouac. Paul Theroux. If one of those names aren’t you then god help your writing if you insist on doing so. You will come across arrogant, patronising, and conceited. This is made infinitely worse if, when you do choose to force your ego into every narrative, you play yourself up, rather than take the more nuanced route of self-deprecation. And the greatest sin is to do self-deprecation so badly it becomes indistinguishable from arrogance.

This left me wondering, while reading The Official Miser’s Guide by Michael J. Flores, whether the constant, excruciating, self-aggrandisement was something he meant as a joke, or meant seriously but failed to be humorously conveyed. Because boy does it get in the way of everything else in the book. But by the end of the book what I discovered is that not only is the ego inflation intended completely seriously, behind it is a sophisticated plan based on pure, unadulterated bullshit.

The Official Miser’s Guide is, ostensibly, a self-help book written to help Magic: the Gathering players improve various areas of their game. It’s written by Michael J. Flores, one of the longest and most prolific Magic writers, a guy who has won various competitions and designed many decks. If you read The Official Miser’s Guide you’ll hear about every single one of them. Possibly twice. At the very least, by the end, you’ll have absolutely no doubt in your mind who came second at New York States in 2005.[i] This is the terrible journey the book takes you on, and with it comes the creeping realisation that Flores intends on moving from being the deck-building don of Magic to the Tony Robbins self-help guru of Magic.

Chapter 1 opens up with Flores bragging about attending for free the NYC movie premier of Kick-Ass, which has nothing to do with Magic but apparently is highly relevant to Flores’s “…framework for the personality that I invented (and presumably all of you guys love…)”, a rather large, but entirely in-keeping with his ego, assumption for Flores to make. The kicker for this anecdote is a joke that there is no-one having sex in The Official Miser’s Guide (although, horribly, there are several dating tips), and thank whichever higher power prevented that because you just know it would have involved Flores fucking some impossibly beautiful person and describing in entirely too much detail exactly what he was doing to give her the most almighty orgasm of her life.

The next 20-odd pages involve Flores justifying his (and the books) existence, which largely involves name-dropping other Magic players[ii] and explaining why Flores’ very existence among these titans of Magic made him the best person to write this book. These names are punctuated by random big-noting for his Magic history, for instance Flores declaring “”Who’s The Beatdown?” – generally considered to be the greatest Magic article of all time” and “the podcast that Brian David-Marshall and I have been doing for more than six years, was the first –and still the best – Magic podcast”.

As you chew through these early chapters you wonder whether Flores has the world’s largest ego or instead some sort of self-image problem so crippling he needs this immense, continual, self reinforcement in order to face the world each morning.

At the end of Chapter 1 Flores announces his first “homework assignment”, which is to smile for twenty minutes a day. In Chapter 8 he explains it in reference to an Anthony Robbins anecdote about a UC Berkeley study that supposedly cured the clinically depressed through smile therapy with a 100% success rate, a study I’m guessing was so profound that to this day psychologists and psychiatrists prescribe it at every given opportunity (and cannot be found on the web except in reference to Tony Robbins[iii]). Here’s some counter-advice. Use those twenty minutes to masturbate. I guarantee you’ll have something to smile about by the end of it. Besides, masturbating for twenty minutes a day is exactly how Flores wrote The Official Miser’s Guide.

Chapter 2 starts out with the same self-improvement guff, followed by more of the same self-serving pap, for instance “Most people think about “Who’s The Beatdown?” as the single greatest Magic strategy article of all time.”. Apparently telling us this point in Chapter 1 was not enough, Flores’s insecurity is so great that the point needed to be restated in Chapter 2.

This is followed by writing that is alternately patronizing (“At US Nationals 2000—you may have heard of this tournament”), lazy (“I don’t remember what I told Tom, but eleven years later, it hardly matters. What I would say now is that what I might have said in late 1999 or early 2000 was no more or less true at that point than it was when I built Napster”), and contradictory – after navigating the dirty waters of why complexity, context and flexibility is so important, Flores then launches into a full throated defense of generalisations, which he will then rely on for the rest of the book. His defense of generalisations rests on the philosophical question of whether “Can 1-3 words describe even one strand of her hair, let alone a whole head of it?” to which the only response is short, dark and curly.

Flores then launches into a weird attack against an anonymous podcast with “I was listening to a not-useful (and for that matter not-good) podcast about a week ago…”, which is a pretty unnecessary and mean-spirited thing to drop into a book out of nowhere. In fact, the entire sequence about the “Double Nickel” could of easily been re-written to avoid mentioning the podcasters, and it makes his lead-up to his otherwise blow-job-esque description of Jon Finkel – “While he never gave us a Deckade or a My Files full of wisdom and tournament reports, or even that general rule that we all so desire, Jon….” – seem like a side-swipe instead of an in-joke as probably intended. What you eventually discover is truly important about the wisdom Finkel does impart is that is that Flores was there when Jon said it.

Having crowed about Finkel, Flores seems to realise he might not appear the biggest cock in the room anymore, so he spends the next few pages reinforcing his uber-status, noting that for two-years running (2005 & 2006, apparently the most relevant years of Magic ever) Ted Knutson called him “the “Pat Miletich of Magic.””. Flores notes “I took it as a compliment then, and am bragging about it now”. Mike Flores, bragging? Better fetch the smelling salts for surely one has fainted dead away.

In Chapter 3 Michael J. Flores kicks off with a mention of New York Times writer Paul Zane Pilzer, but it’s another Times writer that Flores reminds me most of: Thomas L. Friedman.

If you’re not familiar with Thomas L. Friedman, he’s written such seminal works as The Lexus and the Olive Tree and From Beirut to Jerusalem. His early work, although criticised by some, was widely lauded and his articles as the time for the Times earned him plaudits and awards.

However time has not treated Friedman well. His tendency to insert himself into every story in a larger-than-life manner has worked against him. His habit of torturing analogies to death has caused him to become a target of mockery in the pundit world. His constant name dropping, references to irrelevant historical touchstones, and continual repetition of hollow theories has made his writing cumbersome and easy to ridicule.

Remind you of anyone?

Flores rounds out Chapter 3 with The Power Of Positive Thinking, which essentially moves him from channelling Friedman to channelling Oprah and The Secret, that awful self-help book that implied people should not associate with cancer victims lest they bring cancer upon themselves.

“The winner is the person who is most certain of victory” states Flores, which is an eye-opening read for all the underdogs and longshots who cannot possibly win against a superior player with a superior deck in a game of chance.

Flores hedges this somewhat by following it up with “But by and large, in competitive matchups—you know, the ones where neither player is blown out in a mana-screw, where the fight can go either way—the player who establishes superior certainty will win.”, which defangs the statement by taking the psychological aspect out of it and effectively making it a truism; the player who establishes certainty to win first will win. Ultimately, he simply contradicts this entirely in Chapter 28, when he talks about how he beat a guy who “had every certainty he was going to win… “, thereby revealing a players certainty has little to do with the matter, it’s a player’s skill that shines through.

Chapter 4 kicks off with game theory (after three pages about how gravity isn’t about to fail him and cause him to go spinning into space as he is bound to earth by the shear mass of his ego) and finally Flores is in his element; card economy, the philosophy of fire, and tempo. These are pretty basic theories by now, still solid, and Flores does well to get them out of the way early.

As this stuff has been around for years, the only real problem with this section is the hedging that Flores employs, as in these three instances:

“While conventional wisdom quite usefully states that Pro players are more likely to maximize card advantage given the same resources and matchups than amateur players are (especially in Limited), it is important to approach Magic knowing that card advantage is not a be all, end all. Should we in general try to maximize it? Sure. But not every time.”

“While playing to maximize card advantage is the default way that Pro players approach the game, remember that when a particular resource is not what is scarce, the value we gain by maximizing card advantage may be similarly de-emphasized. In short, card advantage is a guideline, but for the most part, play to win.”

“As with card advantage, operating with tempo in mind is generally desirable but not a “be all, end all.””

This continual hedging leads the reader to one of two conclusions: either Flores lacks such confidence in his own guidelines that he has to continually reinforce the notions that they are just guidelines; or he lacks such confidence in the intelligence of his readers that he feels he has to keep reminding them what a guidelines is.

The problem is that continually reminding the reader of such creates trivial non-statements in the form of “do x unless you shouldn’t do x”, without any clear guidelines of what to look for in the exceptions. This is a real area where Flores is lacking. Rather than build up a new, interesting framework on when to go outside the boundaries of his useful guidelines – ie. when do his guidelines no longer become useful – he just skips the topic entirely and relies upon his readers to fill in the gaps, thereby adding nothing of substance to theories that are now almost a decade old.

This would have been an excellent spot for Flores to describe what corner-cases are in Magic and how to recognise when the gamestate has reached a corner-case, but the opportunity is missed. If you are going to give your readers a toolkit of guidelines, it’s equally important to give them the tools for operating outside of the guidelines and recognising when it’s correct to do so.

At this point, four chapters in, the only new and unique discussion Flores has committed is the difference between useful & non-useful vs right & wrong (an interesting discussion back in Chapter 2). Everything else has been pomp and pageantry marching across well worn ground.

This continues in Chapters 5 and 6, which cover the concept of trump cards, Zvi’s the Fundamental turn, going “over the top”, game-stage theory, sliding into home with Flores’ ” Grand Unified Theory of Magic” and a re-tread of the old stock mana theory – and the confession by Flores that he was at the height of his theoretical powers in 2000, over ten years ago. It shows.

Chapter 7 is about the metagame and it’s a logical clusterfuck of Flores proportions. Firstly Flores sets up the strawman of ‘players’ who define the metagame as “a proxy for the word “environment” or “format,” and it’s not the same thing.” This isn’t what most players would define the ‘metagame’ as. Next Flores takes a look at the Wikipedia definition:

“the ‘metagame’ refers to the deck (or group of decks) that are expected to show up in a larger number in a tournament”.

In response Flores declares:

“Sorry Wiki! I think this is kind of a terrible and not particularly useful definition. Instead, I’ll give you one from Justice League of America co-foundress and Bird of Prey Dinah Laurel Lance, the trainer of teevee’s Young Justice: “Combat is about controlling conflict—putting the battle on your terms. You should always be acting, never reacting.” —Black Canary”

This is an even less useful description of the metagame than the Flores Wikipedia version. Later Flores continues:

“I want you to stop thinking about the metagame as Wikipedia suggests—merely a group of decks—and more along the lines of a game, a game you are (or at least can be) playing. The true metagame is what we play (though maybe we don’t necessarily play it well) every time we pick a deck to play in a tournament.”

Incidentally, Wikipedia actually defines ‘the metagame’ as:[iv]

“a broad term usually used to define any strategy, action or method used in a game which transcends a prescribed ruleset, uses external factors to affect the game, or goes beyond the supposed limits or environment set by the game. Another definition refers to the game universe outside of the game itself. In simple terms, it is the use of out-of-game information or resources to affect one’s in-game decisions.”

So maybe Flores could stop harshing on poor Wikipedia as he puts words in its mouth.

Regardless, Flores uses this as a segue to talk about his deck, Critical Mass, a deck that by his own admission “was played in only two tournaments ever” and yet “represented a leap in technology and the pinnacle of what elite deck designers call THE Deck”. Yes, that’s correct, Flores has officially declared Critical Mass the pinnacle of deck design. Forget other equally fleetingly decks that have performed better (for example Alexander Hayne’s Pro Tour winning UW Miracles deck). Forget Cawblade, which completely and utterly dominated its format for months. Forget Thopter Depths, which was so attuned to the metagame the key pieces were immediately banned on Modern’s inception. Forget Flash Hulk, a deck so broken it could win on Turn Zero. No, the pinnacle of deck design was a deck that never had a chance to be blown out by a competitive metagame because the format ended too quickly.

If the argument is that Gnarled Mass should be considered “the pinnacle of what elite deck designers call THE Deck” because it had 90% match rate, Flores himself undercuts this argument by stating that “Jon Finkel once won a PTQ with a deck he claimed had all good matchups” that Flores himself lost to. Under this criteria surely that deck would be The Pinnacle Ultimate Fighting Championship Deck Of All Time. But it’s not. It’s Gnarled Mass.

Flores follows this up with an interesting discussion about metagaming using Rock – Paper – Scissors as an example that is well worth reading. He then almost leads into a useful philosophical discussion about the why or why not to play the “Deck to Beat”, but only states one side of the argument, never following through with the intellectual rigour of positing the other side’s viewpoint. Flores reveals that he never plays the Deck to Beat because:

“Who are the most popular Magic writers? Myself? Patrick Chapin? Zvi Mowshowitz? Gerry Thompson? Heck, Conley Woods was awarded the title of Deck Designer of the Year by a Magic podcast in 2010. All of us are technology producers. None of us want to blend in.”

It all boils down to ego. Ain’t that a surprise?

Chapter 8 involves Flores getting punched in the face twice, easily making it the best section of the book.

Chapter 9 contains a lot of repetition of the words “smile and “certainty, easily making it one of the more boring sections of the book.

Chapter 10 is where the fun begins again. Flores delves into the world of Neuro-Linguistic Programming. What is Neuro-Linguistic Programming? Let’s allow Wikipedia to take a swipe at Flores this time:

“Neuro-linguistic programming is a largely discredited approach to communication, personal development, and psychotherapy created in the 1970s… Reviews of empirical research on NLP indicate that NLP contains numerous factual errors, and has failed to produce reliable results for the claims for effectiveness made by NLP’s originators and proponents… Criticisms go beyond the lack of empirical evidence for effectiveness; critics say that NLP exhibits pseudoscientific characteristics, title, concepts and terminology. NLP is used as an example of pseudoscience for facilitating the teaching of scientific literacy at the professional and university level.”[v]

That’s right, NLP is pure, unmitigated bullshit. I’m not going to further dignify NLP with a cogent argument against it. Crack open a book. Use Google. It’s all there.

Flores states “Language Lesson Numero Uno: Your unconscious mind can’t process a negative.”

This is also pure, unmitigated bullshit. Even the most cursory examination of this premise should allow you to recognize its invalidity.

Flores launches into the use of NLP “embedded commands”, as used by pickup artists and multimedia marketers.

Embedded commands are pure, unmitigated bullshit.

Flores then drops the name of Frank Kern, who he calls “the godfather of Internet marketing”.

Frank Kern is full of pure, unmitigated bullshit. If you’d like more information on Frank Kern, try reading The Verge’s 2012 article entitled “Scamworld: ‘Get rich quick’ schemes mutate into an online monster“.[vi] Be careful if you google for him, there are a great deal of websites that start off criticising him, only as a lure to get you to buy his product.

Flores spends the chapter using NLP and pick-up artist practices as the theoretical underpinnings of “mind tricking” your opponent. Further pure, unmitigated bullshit.

This is not to say you can’t mind-trick your opponent; certainly you can. You can lead your opponent into all sorts of self-harming actions during a game. However the psychology behind these actions have absolutely nothing to do with the pseudoscience of NLP.

But forget the rest, Flores citing NLP is itself the big reveal.

It becomes clear that across The Official Miser’s Guide Flores follows up each mention of Who’s The Beatdown with hyperbole[vii] not because he necessarily believes it, but because he thinks that if he keeps repeating these statements, you will believe it.

This explains the endless effort Flores takes to tie himself to accomplished players, to insert himself however tenuously into any situation where Magic of worth is occurring, to exaggerate and inflate and laud himself and his work as infinitely more important than it is, and apparently, the reason he finishes each of this non-Wizards articles with LOVE MIKE, as he believes the embedded command of this statement will cause you to actually love him. No seriously, that’s what he writes. In his own words. To be seen by everyone.

The stark reality is that The Official Miser’s Guide isn’t a self-help guide. It’s a long advertising flyer for Michael J. Flores, with about as much value.

It’s at this point in The Official Miser’s Guide where, as a reader, you have to make a choice. Are you going to continue to absorb this non-information and waste your time on ego-inflated, scientifically discredited, factually challenged, illogical, repetitious nonsense, or are you going to put it down and go do something more useful, like stick forks into your eyeballs?

Mike Flores was a great deck-builder and great writer. Now he is an inglorious hack spouting utter nonsense in an effort to fool enough people to buy his “brand”.[viii] The Official Miser’s Guide is less a self-help book than a marketing pamphlet filled with the Magic equivalent of get rich quick schemes. When I began reading The Official Miser’s Guide I thought there was nothing here that couldn’t be saved by a ruthless editor. However as the layers around the foundations were pulled back to reveal the bullshit bedrock beneath them it became clear that The Official Miser’s Guide is irredeemable. The best of it is already out there; the worst of it actually makes you dumber for reading it.

Paradoxically, we will leave it to Flores to argue whether you should buy The Official Miser’s Guide or not. Flores states:

“There is such a thing as not useful, and we should generally slough off not-useful information whenever possible. I would go so far as to say we should shun and actively avoid sources of not-useful information.”

And I, for once, agree with him.


[i] It was Michael J. Flores.

[ii] Eg. Luis Scott-Vargas, Conley Woods, Michael Jacob, Brian David-Marshall, Randy Buehler, Joey Pasco, Gabriel Nassif, Brian Hacker, Jon Finkel, Jamie Parke, Tom Martell, Steve O’Mahoney-Schwartz, Tony Tsai, Brian Kowal

[iii] I spent all of 3 minutes looking, so I am totally prepared for someone to actually find the damn thing and email me a link.

[iv] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metagaming ’Metagame’ isn’t specifically defined on the Magic entry on Wikipedia. If you can find what Flores was talking about, let me know.

[vii] “generally considered to be the greatest Magic article of all time” Chapter 1, “the single greatest Magic strategy article of all time” Chapter 2, “generally considered the single most influential Magic article of all time” Chapter 9 plus a couple of other mentions that aren’t so prosaic.

[viii] see Chapters 29 and 30, if you dare to persevere that far.

Deadpool Drafting

I’ve been thinking lately about draft formats (ie 8-man, Rochester, Rooster, etc). I’ve never tried to invent a draft format before, but I’ve started putting one together. I think it’s going to be pretty interesting; but then I thought Rakdos would be a bust at the RTR Pre-release, so my opinion only gets you so far.

I call this draft format “Deadpool”. I think the format would work best between 2-3 players. I’m not sure how well 4 players would work.

1. Take your pool of cards (whatever they might be – cube, stack of cracked packs, etc) and shuffle into one large deck without looking at them.
2. Choose someone to draft first.
3. First player draws three cards from the top of the deck. That player puts once face down in front of them. That is the “Deadpool”. They then put one card face up in front of them. That is the “Livepool” (for want of a better name – please email me one). They keep the third card.
4. The second player then draws three cards from the top of the deck. That player may now either:
    (a) Put one card face-down on the Deadpool, one card face-up on the Livepool, and keep the third;
    (b) Put all three cards face-down on the Deadpool and take the Livepool; or
    (c) Put all three cards face-up on the Livepool and swap all their chosen cards face down for the Deadpool. This may only be done once per draft.
5. This continues until both players have a minimum of 45 cards.

The interesting part of this draft is the tension the Deadpool creates. The Deadpool creates an attractive resource that almost always has more cards than either player. When your over card pool your drafting from is of high power value, the Deadpool is extremely attractive. Howeever each player only has one chance to grab the Deadpool, so there is a tension between grabbing the cards early or late.

If you aren’t the first person to grab the Deadpool, you then need to determine if the new Deadpool is better than your current taken cards. All sorts of factors go into this; watching the reaction of your opponent taking the Deadpool, their general skill level in drafting, the cards you know you’ve been feeding both the Deadpool and your opponent.

Various draft strategies might emerge; there’s ‘straight down the line’, where you simply draft as normal, or you might try to draft two separate strategies, one into your hand, one into the Deadpool as a backup, or you might try to fill the Deadpool with as much Chaff as possible while faking that you’re giving up value, to entice your opponent to swap it out. Or you might draft chaff as possible intending on swapping into the larger Deadpool before your opponent.

I’m think it should work, I’d certainly like to try it one day. If you give it a go, let me know, along with any suggestions/improvements you can think of.

Early RTR Limited Thoughts

By popular request, as summary of my RTR tweets today.

SRTRLCYSNFA (Sweet Return to Ravnica Limited Cards You Should Not Forget About)

1. Faerie Imposter: Gives pseudo-vigilance. Buys back Azorius Arresters & Voidwielders. Few common flyers to get in the way. (edit: Also resets unleash)

2. Speaking of which Azorius Arresters is great. The question is whether or not to play on T2. Usually not. Save that detain for later.

3. Thrill-Kill Assassin, Deadly Recluse’s best friend. Stops so many things, is an admirable beater. Can reset with Faerie Imposters.

4. Blustersquall is the blowoustests with the mostest. Ok, that didn’t work but the card does. Ends stalls, buys tempo gains.

5. Gatecreeper Vine + Axebane Guardian as a combo is a real Groan-Test passer. You can play virtually any spell you like T4. Real deal.

6. & speaking of defenders Hover Barrier has the fattest ass you’ve seen in a long time. Stops so much. Not pro-active but decent ‘removal’.

7. Stab Wound: Tricksiest removal in a long time. Best used on 3/3 Scavangers (Korozda Monitor/Zanikev Locust). Pumps Sphere of Safety.

8. Downsize: Sounds terrible, but -4/0 is a lot and overload is v. good. Sets up alphas, breaks stalemate breakers, allows double blocks.

9. Slum Reaper is great with tokens/populate or scavenge. After attrition war is over, may be only thing to deal w/ a bomb.

10. Axebane Stag. It’s vanilla, but the 7 butt is crazy. No other common/uncommon can profitably block it and neither can most rares.

CTACBYAKTBYASP (Cards That Aren’t Cards But You Already Knew That Because You Are Smart People)

1. You do not have the deck to make Urban Burgeoning work. Even if you think you do, you probably don’t.

2. Destroy the Evidence is a nightmare. Don’t give your opponent all those Scavenge cards, please.

3. Tavern Swindler’s ability. It’s a great 2/2 for 2. If you ever tap it to gain six life I will disown you and kick you out of the house.

4. Racecourse Fury is a Fervor that uses up more and more mana. And you ran Fervor how often? Never? Right.

5. Tablet of the Guilds. C’mon, you’re not five anymore. Grow up.

Some Other Thoughts

For Sealed, Azorious is likely best, followed by Golgari, Izzet. Rakdos is hard to get critical mass, Selesnya harder.

Selesnya needs two halves to work; the token makers, and the populate cards. If you just get (a), its ok. If you just get (b) it’s miserable.

Rakdos unleash IS powerful and fast in draft, but sealed tends to be slower. Rakdos Sealed is more likely to kill u with a fatty than a 3/2.

Izzet cards seem to be straight two-for-ones and value. Nothing super powerful, rewards grindier value mages and tempo players.

Golgari has plenty of mid-range beats suited to sealed, and long term scavenge inevitability & value. Can trade early then hit hard later on.

Azorius has the best long-game and finishers and the support cards to get to that point. Detain is a monster that youll either love or hate.

I’ll be listening to @Marshall_LR & @JonLoucks in the car on the way home tonight, will tweet tomorrow what I thought.

Creature Creep

Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The 2CMC Bomb

Today on Twitter Rob Martin asked “Concerned about the power lvl of the creatures at all in the new release?”.

Now, I spend time on twitter taking the piss out of WotC for the power level of their creatures like I’m getting paid to do so. That said, I’m not concerned about power creep.

When talking about creature creep, you need a frame of references. For this discussion there are two data points that interest me the most: those creatures that are banned in various formats, and the acknowledged ‘best creatures’ of all time.

There is only one creature banned in Extended – Stoneforge Mystic. The power level of this lady isn’t in her power or toughness, but in her two abilities, the first a tutor for whatever is the best equipment in that format, then drop it into play for the low, low cost of 1W. Mystic was printed in Worldwake, released at the beginning of 2010. That about a year and a half ago now.

There are only three creatures banned in Modern – Stoneforge Mystic (who I just discussed), Golgari Grave Troll, and Wild Nacatl. Golgari Grave Troll isn’t banned due to his power or toughness, but due to a number next to a keyword. Apparently, Dredge 6 is just too large an incentive not to warp the format with a powerful dredge deck. Golgari’s Grave Troll‘s power and toughness could literally be 1/1 and it would still see play due to Dredge 6. He was printed in Ranvina in 2005, almost 7 years ago. Nacatl is a little more what we expect from ‘creature power creep’, largely as she’s almost always a 3/3 on Turn 2, which is an amazingly aggressive start. WotC were worried that the only viable aggro deck in a Modern format with Nacatl live would be Naya Zoo, and therefore elected to ban it. This looks a little premature now that we have Delver of Secrets, the flying 3/2 on T2, dominating the board in Standard, Modern and Legacy.

Legacy is an interesting format when it comes to banned creatures. Tempest Efreet, Timmerian Fiends, and Jeweled Bird aside (banned due to the legality of their wording, as opposed to their power level), there are again three relevant creatures banned – Goblin Recruiter, Hermit Druid, and Worldgorger Dragon (who recently came off the EDH banned list). Goblin Recruiter and Hermit Druid suffer the same problem as Stoneforge Mystic; they have an unconditional tutor effect that warps entire decks. Hermit Druid is a monster as you can literally decline to play a basic land in your deck, dump your libary into your graveyard, and go from there. Goblin Recruiter has a similar effect and it’s easy to understand how it could be abused, even outside a goblin aggro strategy. Worldgorger Dragon is banned due to his ability, rather than his rather mundane power and toughness, with WotC deciding it would much perfer players to combo out with a 3-mana spell like Show And Tell than a 6-mana spell like Worldgorger. Hermit Druid was printed for Stronghold in 1998, Goblin Recruiter for Visions in 1997, and Worldgorger Dragon for Judgement in 2002.

So when looking at what it takes to get a creature banned, it’s clear you either need a broken tutor effect, or to be a clear combo piece (or in the case of Hermit Druid, both) to get the shaft. With Delver of Secrets pushing the line in Standard, Modern and Legacy, I wouldn’t be surprised in Wild Nacatl was unbanned in Modern – or if Delver were banned once it rotates out of Standard.

Right now, looking at the barely-there spoiler list for Return to Ravnica, there’s nothing that fits this space. Now combo pieces generally appear a little later in the maturity of a format, so if there is one, we may be seeing it, but not seeing the combo yet. However WotC tend to have a good handle on controlling combo effects (even though they missed the Deceiver Exarch / Splinter Twin combo for the brief period it was legal in Standard). Likewise, I think they’ve probably learnt their lesson on putting tutor effects on creatures (though maybe not, I’m looking at you, Primeval Titan), and we haven’t seen one yet amongst the Return to Ravnica spoilers yet. It seems the magic number for a broken tutor creature is 2CMC, and while Viridian Emissary saw a little play, Dawntreader didn’t, the Trinket Mage/Treasure Mage combo never made it off the Kitchen Table, Kuldoth Forgemaster has been relegated to a little Legacy play, and only Brad Nelson plays Rune-Scarred Demon in Standard. The exception has been Solemn Simulacrum, which saw a fair amount of play as a State 2 control card, but was certainly far from overpowered (and was first printed for Mirrodin in 2003). The most powerful creatures that ushered in the era of ‘battlefield magic’ – the Titans (plus Wurmcoil Engine) are all about to rotate out of Standard and their doesn’t seem to be a clear group of board-dominating 6-drops to replace them.

So if creatures aren’t getting more ‘broken’, are they at least getting stronger?

The one drop spot is interesting. I’ve talked about Wild Nacatl, but it fights for top spot in the aggro ladder with the likes of Kird Ape, Loam Lion, Delver of Secrets, Steppe Lynx, Savannah Lions and Goblin Guide. In reality, these guys all hover around the same power level. Occasionally Delver of Secrets is a disappointing 1/1. Occasionally Goblin Guide creates un-beatable card-advantage for your opponent. Occasionally Steppe Lynx is a terrible 0/1. Yes, each of these cards are supported by decks designed to mitigate this, but in general, across time, the power level has stayed the same. Whether Delver of Secrets is banned in Standard or Modern will be a significant tell to how WotC feel about the 1-drop spot (I’m guessing it won’t). RTR has given us Nivmagus Elemental, which, although strong, is actually deceptively weak due to its mana intensivity. It’s major strength is that it’s blue, and if Blue can protect this during T1/T2 to get it to be a ’1 mana’ 3/4, then we might have a new king of the 1-drops. This, however, remains to be seen, and in reality is (a) costing more than 1 mana, and (b) costing more than 1 card. This might be too much cost in the long run.

If you’ve watched the Channel Fireball Top 8 2-Drop Creatures video you get Quasali Pridemage (a 2/2 capable of becoming a 3/3), Meddling Mage (a 2/2), Lotus Cobra (a 2/1), Stoneforge Mystic (a 1/2), Wild Mongrel (2/2 that grows), Arcbound Ravager (a 1/1 that grows), Tarmogoyf (usually a 6/7), and Dark Confidant (a 2/1). Of these, it’s Tarmogoyf that’s the gold-standard for aggro drops, the 2-mana 6/7, with Wild Mongrel a close second. The rest are generally pieces of a larger puzzle. Wild Mongrel was printed for Odyssey in 2001, and Tarmogoyf for Future Sight in 2007. It might seem crazy to think about, but we haven’t had as aggressive a 2-drop in almost five years. There is some question whether Lotleth Troll (LOL TROLL) will be able to fill those shoes, but LOL TROLL requires a deck to be built around it, unlike Tarmogoyf, which can fill a roll in almost ever strategy (other than combo, you nitpicking bastards (and now I’ll get an email with a Tarmogoyf combo deck)).

The three-drop spot broadens things significantly. There’s over 1500 three drop creatures in MtG history, but even the most ‘powerful’ of them – weirdly, Phyrexian Soulgorger (Coldsnap, 2006) – never saw serious play (maybe it should have). The big vanilla creatures, Leatherback Baloth and Woolly Thoctar certainly put older vanilla cards such as Alaborn Trooper and Gorilla Warrior to shame, but even then don’t often pack as much punch as a Ball Lightning (first printed in 1994). The big non-vanilla 3-drops of late, such as Phylactery Lich and Skaab Ruinator never made it into tournament play, the benefits too often seen as ‘not worth the effort’. For super-powered three drops we must look to cards such as Psychatog (Odyssey, 2001), Knight of the Reliquary (Conflux, 2009), and Vendilion Clique (Morningtide, 2008). Vendilion Clique is really a control finisher, of the other two Psychatog is the true Beatdown King. Mike Flores might of been bashing people with Gnarled Mass, but we’ve come to expect bigger and better – Gnarled Mass now comes with Flash and Regeneration, thanks Wolfir Avenger.

The ‘big’ three drop in Return to Ravnica so far is Loxodon Smiter, a 3CMC 4/4 with only upside. I think this is a big departure from the other creatures in some ways, even through he’ll generally lose in combat to a Tarmogoyf (though admittely there is nothing the artwork that suggest the Smiter isn’t female, I’m still using “he”). This where I think the major change in WotC philosophy comes in; they are willing for players to get more out of their creatures at higher mana costs.

This is transparently apparently when you look at where the 4CMC to 6CMC slot creatures have headed over the past few years. No more Juzam Djinn (Arabian Nights, 1993) or Erhnam Djinn (Judgement, 2002), instead we have Abyssal Persecutor and the new Desecration Demon. Sure their downsides seem worse, but they are both effectively better creatures. In M10 we received the bonkers Baneslayer Angel at 5CMC, and in M11 we received the Titans at 6CMC. At 8-mana we now get clear game-winners such as Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Griselbrand.

However, as you can see, while the top of the curve continues to improve for creature’s power, toughness, and abilities, the bottom of the curve continues to dawdle along, the the major war being waged at the 3CMC slot.

I think I’m fine with this. When you take a look at the banned and restricted lists, they are filled with instants, sorceries, enchantments and artifacts. It takes a great deal for a creature to make it on those lists. WotC seem to have found a happy medium with the 1 and 2 drop slots, are currently seeking out that same space for the 3 drop creatures, and are happy to go to town with the four-mana-and-above creatures, all of which required improvement anyway. The best of the best are still creatures from 4-6 years ago and frankly we could use the competition. Sure, I hope that the power level of non-creature cards doesn’t evaporate in the mean time (and looking at the spells in Return to Ravnica, I’m fairly confident they won’t). But right now I’m not worried about creature power creep, so long as 1 and 2 drops don’t break everything.

All eyes on Nivmagus Elemental from here.

Cycles & Mini-Cycles in M13

M13 is a super-cycle set, which I love.

There are the highlighted cycles:

  • The five Legendary creatures (Odric, Master Tactician, Talrand, Sky Summoner, Nefarox, Overlord of Grixis, Krenko, Mob Boss & Yeva’s Forcemage): These are all very nicely design, although the perfection of the cycle is a little disrupted because Nefarox is 6CMC, while the four others are 4CMC. However is effect is such that the greater casting cost is a absolute requirement – he would of been a crazy Abyss on a stick at 4CMC. Odric is the most underrated but an absolute killer in Limited. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t show up somewhere in constructed, probably as a replacement for Hero of Bladehold. Talrand is good, but not great, in Limited, as it’s harder to craft a great deck around him. Krenko is an absolute monster, especially with the high availability of Krenko’s Command. Yeva’s Forcemage is the least exciting in Limited, although it does allow for some nice combat tricks and to play around countermagic, which is a real thing in M13 Limited. I think that generally the 4CMC cost of these cards is the perfect model for a Legendary cycle in core set, and they are so much less oppresive than the Titans that they feel like a breath of fresh air.
  • The five rings (Ring of Evos Isle, Ring of Kalonia, Ring of Thune, Ring of Valkas & Ring of Xathrid). The rings are generally all good, though the red one which grants haste is certainly the weakest, and I’m not sure red even wants it over another creature. The best is probably the Black, followed nicely by the Green. I’ve had boards completely stall out in the face of a deathtouch creature with a black ring on it, and all you can do is wait until they have a 10/10 that then starts beating in on you, refusing to die. The white one is merely ok, and the blue is annoying at best, although the fact these two often go on fliers is their key advantage. But who wants to give their Aven Squire vigilance? Overall the CMC, equip costs and activation costs feel right on each of the rings.
  • The five off-colour activiation creatures (Harbor Bandit, Prized Elephant, Crimson Muckwader, Flinthoof Boar, Arctic Aven): These are all really neat in design. The one that scares me the most is Flinthoof Boar because a 3/3 on turn 2, followed by a hasty 3/3 on turn 3 is no joke. The Harbour Bandit is the best at taking down board stalls, especially because black can usually find a couple of Duty-Bound Dead to help pump it up while holding down the fort. Crimson Muckwader doesn’t excite me much, nor does the Prized Elephant, though I believe them to be fine cards.
  • The five dual lands (Dragonskull Summit, Drowned Catacomb, Glacial Fortress, Rootbound Crag, Sunpetal Grove): I’m really happy these keep getting reprinted. They work nicely in this set with the activation creatures and they help newer players build better manabases for cheap. I don’t pick them highly in limited unless I know I’m going to splash a colour, or my deck is firmly in the two colours represented and I’m not missing another pick.

What’s more interesting are the cylces (and mini-cycles) of cards that do similar things in different ways that give the format a level of consistency and redundency that make drafting a very interesting exercise.

  • The five Legendary-creature flavour spells (Crusader of Odric, Talrand’s Invocation, Servant of Nefarox, Krenko’s Command, Yeva’s Forcemage): Clearly Talrand has someone at WotC on the payroll, because he certainly got the best deal. 2 x 2/2 flyers for 2UU is fantastic and it kills me whenever I see this card go anything less than second pick. Crusader is actually very good, and it’s interesting to see how far Scion of the Wild has fallen in power level (if it ever was that powerful). Krenko’s Command is a fine card, especially in multiples, and is infinitely better with Arms Dealer and Krenko himself. Weirdly, Crusader of Odric is only marginally better with Ordic, because Ordric still needs two more critters to work properly. Yeva’s Forcemage is no Trusted Forcemage, and I can take it or leave it. Usually leave it.
  • The five key common removal spells (Pacifism, Murder, Prey Upon, Searing Spear, Unsummon): The two new cards here are Murder (which I honestly expected to be printed at BB) and Searing Spear, the slightly nerfed Incinerate. You could argue Encrust should be there in place of Unsummon, but I think Unsummon is more key to Blue in M13, due to the high levels of countermagic around. They’re all good, solid cards, and they’re all around the right power level for core set removal. However, the lack of truly great removal (eg Path to Exile, Doom Blade, Lightning BOlt) has me a little worrierd about the upcoming Standard environment when Scars rotates, but I’m sure WotC will have substitutes in Return to Ravnica.
  • The five overrun effects (Predatory Rampage, Cleaver Riot, Sleep, Safe Passage, Public Execution): It’s funny that Overrun was pushed to rare in Green, but all the other colours got Overruns (albiet worse Overruns) in common and uncommon. Cleaver Riot is a face-smashing machine that, while missing the trample, can cause amazing amounts of damage. Sleep simply removes all blockers for a turn and a half, allowing you to push the damage through. Safe Passage is the closest white gets to Overrun, but with a little effort can be just as effective offensively as defensively. Public Exeuction is the new card for Black and it is a monster. Done right you can effectively wipe their board, and usually at the worst it’s a 2-for-1. And at instant. Ka-blam!
  • The five enchantment damage-pushers (Tricks of the Trade, Mark of the Vampire, Rancor, Volcanic Strength, Angelic Benediction): Ok, it’s a super-loose cycle and probably only one in my head, but these cards are all effectively doing the same thing; pushing through damage. Mark, Tricks and Rancor (oh Rancor) are the ones that get all the discussion, largely because Volcanic Strength is relatively mediocre and Angelic Benediction is a sometimes do-nothing. I never cast any of them in M13, which says a lot about who I am (I would happily cast Rancor, but I’ve never been able to take it in draft).
  • The four token sweepers (Cower in Fear, Chandra’s Fury
    , Rain of Blades, Downpour): Sure, Downpour is the loosest card in this mini-cycle, but it’s great that four of the colours has access to this kind of effect. The casting costs feel about right, and you can get other value out of them as well: Cower in Fear as an Overrun effect; Chandra’s Fury as a straight burn spell; Rain of Blades as Aven Squire removal; Downpour as a tempo play. Incidentally Stuffy Doll, who is indestructible, can Cower in Fear and die. Flavour fail!
  • The four token makers (Fungal Sprouting, Krenko’s Command, Captain’s Call, Talrand’s Invocation): I’ve mentioned most of these above, but there is a nice little mini-cycle of sorceries here. Talrand’s got the best of it, but Captain’s Call is a fine card for anyone with either Odric or Captain of the Watch. I’ve not played with Fungal Sprouting and I’ve luckily always had the Cower in Fear against those that have, but one day it’s going to get me, and that’s fine. I still won’t play it.
  • The three mass removal spells (Planar Cleansing, Magmaquake, Mutilate): No Upheaval, blue? Regardless, the best of these is Mutilate, followed closely by Magmaquake, which is a house in the UR deck as it skips all your fliers. I’ve hit the finals with Mutilate, and lost in the finals because I misplayed Mutilate, oh it’s a fickel mistress. I’ve never seen Planar Cleansing played in any Limited format it’s been legal in, or constructed format it’s been legal in. Not even Commander.

The great thing about the design of M13 is that each of the colours generally has access to play through, around, and against their opponent’s threats. Removal, inevitability, one-shot game enders and control effects are all available, which means no matter what your native play style, you can still open a pack and have a direction to head, even if your natural colour affinity is missing. This makes for a great format, and one I’m really enjoying, both design-wise and play-wise. Well done WotC, this set is a home run.

On The MtGO Reserved List

I would like to talk about the MtGO Reserved List.

“Wait!” you say, “There is no MtGO Reserved List!”.

Sorry to say there is, and there is exactly one card on it: Force of Will.

Alright, fair enough, it’s not an official MtGO Reserve List. But the non-’reprinting’ of FoW is now set in stone by the Word of Worth, from a forum post here.

Here’s (the important part) what he said.

The only way it is “clearly avoidable” at this point is to reprint FoW, something I will not do mostly because I said at the outset of MED that I wouldn’t, and people have since (I’m sure) made purchasing decisions based on that statement. It’s not like I’m springing this on people. I’ve said this stuff from the very beginning.

The real question is, are we going to have this same conversation on January 8th 2009 when I’m taking MED2 off sale and stuff like Underground Sea is going with it?
On a side note, if you guys think that Classic is going to be so popular that FoW is going to be 100 tickets a piece, should you buy a bunch of packs or trade for FoW’s right now?

The lack of availability and heightened expense of FoW on MtGO is a real, yet entirely artificial, problem. Due to lack of reprinting, and aggresive hoarding by traders, Force of Will currently hovers around US$100 for a single copy, so anyone who wants a playset is generally going to have to pay around US$400.

As a card fundamental to many of the best decks in Legacy, this is an obvious problem.

Worth’s argument against reprinting was made between the issue of ME1 in 2007 and ME2 in 2008. At the time Classic was a thriving format, a kind of analogue of Vintage but without many of the cards. Legacy was not a format at all on MtGO, it’s popularity a few years away once more of the required cards came online.

At the time Worth made that post FoW was hovering just below $30. Even then, the signs were on the wall that FoW price and availability were going to negatively impact the classic format. Worth’s post itself was a response to that very concern. Signs at the time were that Force was going to climb, and only those in the know – and on MtGO during this time period – would be able to take advantage of the rise.

So lets unpack Worth’s statement.

The only way it is “clearly avoidable” at this point is to reprint FoW, something I will not do mostly because I said at the outset of MED that I wouldn’t, and people have since (I’m sure) made purchasing decisions based on that statement. It’s not like I’m springing this on people. I’ve said this stuff from the very beginning.

This is a totally reasonable approach to take. Worth, on behalf of WotC, declares that the one and only printing of Force of Will on MtGO will be in ME1. No other printings will take place. As the maker of a Collectable Card Game, the need to create scarcity and engender value is important.

However, this stance is in direct contradiction with the current WotC paper reprint policy.
WotC have, tacitly, admitted the original Reserved List was a mistake. That initial grand bargain with collectors will remain in place as a commitment the company made years ago. Past the cut-off set of the Reserved List, every card will be available for reprinting.

Ironically, this includes Force of Will.
Worth has backed WotC into a corner in regards to digital FoW, making a similar promise to early collectors that has created an unofficial reserved list of one card (ok, yes, other cards from ME1 are assumedly on that list, but none have been specifically called out in the same way).

The real question is, are we going to have this same conversation on January 8th 2009 when I’m taking MED2 off sale and stuff like Underground Sea is going with it?

This sentence is a real kick-in-the-pants of FoW reprint advocates as Underground Sea, as with the other Dual Lands, were reprinted in ME4. This reprinting implies two things:

  • Master Editions cards are available to reprint and are not on a reserved list (another example is Armaggedon, reprinted in ME4, and Animate Dead, just reprinted in Graveborn).
  • Force of Will is being treated differently to other ME cards due to Worth’s promise.
    If other ME1 cards are being reprinted, then there is literally no reason why Force of Will should be treated differently. If collectors can cope with reprints of Armageddon, Black Knight, Dragon Engine, Dust to Dust, etc etc etc from ME1, then they can cope with the reprinting of Force of Will.

On a side note, if you guys think that Classic is going to be so popular that FoW is going to be 100 tickets a piece, should you buy a bunch of packs or trade for FoW’s right now?

This is the worst kind of long term thinking, as it help the narrow band of people who get on the ground-floor and is a direct middle finger to all future customers.

It also demonstrates how the flawed idea of Classic as a long-term format informed this opinion, blind to the rise of Legacy as a legitimate and popular format both online and off. It is a scarily accurate estimate of the future price of Force of Will. I hope you bought in in 2008.

–**–

There is no reason for WotC to continue an MtGO Reserved List of one card. It hurts Legacy as a format; it hurts new players; it hurts reprint policies in general; it contradicts WotC’s intention of preventing card reservations in the future; and it’s contradictory to WotC’s already-in-place practice of reprinting other cards in ME1, ME2 and ME3.

A promise is hard to break, especially one you’ve staked your reputation on. This puts Worth in an uncomfortable and unenviable position. However he’s steered a great ship with MtGO for many years now, and I’m sure admitting a mistake in regard to Force of Will’s reprinting policy won’t create too much of a dent in the respect he has within the MtGO community.

The facts supporting the MtGO Force of Will reprint policy no longer stack up. Times have changed. Classic has fallen. Legacy has risen. ME1, 2 & 3 cards have been reprinted.

It’s time to let the MtGO Reserved List go.

Limited Lessons

I talked a little on twitter yesterday about AVR draft. No matter how much you dislike a format, you should always be able to learn something from it. So what what was my biggest takeaway from AVR limited? And what was my biggest takeaway from other limited formats?

AVR x 3: Green is a legitimate colour for limited; lack of instant speed removal changes card valuation significantly; tempo matters.

INN/DKA: Explore your deckbuilding options; an unplayable card is awesome in the right deck.

M12: A good offense is the best defense.

SCARS Block: Equipment can be a valuable, repeatable effect; linear strategies require a critical mass to succeed.

ROE x 3: Ramp is a legitimate strategy when you have something worth ramping into.

ZEN/WWK: 2 drops matter.

SHARDS Block: A great manabase is hard to beat. A poor manabase is hard to beat with.

EVE/SHM: Always double check whether you should play a card first of second main phase.

LOR/MOR: Read every creature type twice.

TSP/PLC/FST: What the fuck is going on here?