Tempo Advantage and Risk vs. Reward

The current MtG metagame in Standard is undoubtedly fast. The only thing restraining the most powerful decks at the moment are the clunky manabases utilising ETB Tapped lands. A number of archtypes – Boros Bushwacker, Mono-Black Vampires – have taken advantage of this and as a result the metagame has splintered in to the fast vs. the powerful. Surprisingly, unlike most MtG metagame situations, this has not resulted in a viable counter-control strategy.

This is due to the fact that premium card-draw is at an all-time low. Sign-in-Blood, Ior Ruin Expedition, Divination and Mind Spring all suffer from the simple fact of ‘not being instants’, which allows a clear opening for your opponent to take actions that won’t be countered.

One way to take advantage of this situation is to ask, ‘how can I improve the tempo of my deck?’.

Before we can go into this, we need to take a look at the card that currently defines the tempo of the metagame. It’s a card that provides both tempo advantage and card advantage. It is, of course, Bloodbraid Elf.

Bloodbraid Elf: 2RG, Creature – Elf Beserker, Haste, Cascade, 3/2

Bloodbraid has a unique combination of high-tempo keywords, Haste and Cascade. Haste is a great keyword for producing an aggressive deck. But combined with Cascade, it creates a card that is unparalleled at it’s mana cost for providing both a tempo boost and card advantage. What’s more, the cascade mechanic provides both card advantage AND a tempo boost, as the card is free to play immediately. As a result Bloodbraid Elf defines the format into three kinds of decks – those that play Bloodbraid Elf (Jund, Naya Lightsaber), and those that try to beat Bloodbraid Elf (everything else).

In order to beat Bloodbraid Elf, you need a deck that has a tempo that will outrace the first playing of the Belf. This can mean one of two things – either your deck aims to defeat your opponent before the Belf is played, or your deck aims to make playing the Belf irrelevant as the outcome of the game is already inevitable.

There are two cards that have high-risk/high-reward tempo boosts associated with them that do not see much play at the moment, largely because the success of the ‘reward’ is seen as too unlikely. These are Lotus Cobra and
Warren Instigator.

Lotus Cobra

Lotus Cobra was widely hyped when it was first revealed, then as no decks ran it was largely rediculed as being over-hyped. I have a pet theory about Lotus Cobra; the high price and mythic rarity has prevented it from being played in enough decks to see it tested properly, and as a result has not found an appropriate home in a deck yet.

Lotus Cobra is a card with an amazing ability to push tempo advantage to new levels. With the right cards built around it – for instance, fetch lands, Harrow and Garruk – Lotus Cobra is able to punch out 6 or 7 mana spells on Turn 3. This immediately puts your opponent on the back foot, as most aggro decks are unable to adequately defend against such an assault.

However, the risk is currently seen as too high. Cobra is often thought of as a two-mana Duress for removal, and indeed, most opponents that see it would be wise to kill it immediately, much like the old rule of thumb that you always ‘bolt your opponent’s Bird of Paradise.

However, the wonderfully named ‘Magical Christmas Land’ deck that Conley Woods took to worlds demonstrates how multiple avenues for tempo advantage can work to your favour. Lotus Cobra, in Wood’s deck, acted as nitro in an deck already laden with tempo accelleration. Having a Lotus Cobra around on Turn 3 simply meant that inevitability in that game was almost assured.

In other words, Conley found the right way of mitigating the risks of such a strategy, to much success.

Warren Instigator

I happen to think Warren Instigator is a fine card. It is, if anything, a victim of Jund Charm, Terminate, Lightning Bolt – ie. the most heavily played deck in the format.

Goblins is a fast deck. Faster, perhaps, than Boros Bushwacker. Testing online shows a very, very consistent T4/5 win. Yes, it’s a bitch when Warren Instigator is killed once you drop it, but the same risk/reward factor exists as with Lotus Cobra – if it resolves and survives, your likelihood of winning is near certain. Also, there’s so little that feels as good as double Seige Gang Commander for free.

Warren Instigator offers no card advantage, but an absolutely amazing tempo advantage. In this format it’s something that at least worth taking a second look at. Unlike Lotus Cobra, however, it is difficult to built a ‘great deck’ that doesn’t rely on Warren Instigator.

Ulimately, high risk/high reward strategies will be favoured by those who enjoy the swinginess factor and the high of the amazing win, and ignored by everyone else. But when someone, like Conley starts to cract the tempo challenge, that’s when you’ll be unhappy for ignoring them for so long as the metagame shifts without you.

ZZZ Drafting – 4322 – 16 November 2009

I drafted twice last night, and you can see the results at raredraft.com here and here.

The first deck I went WB, and ended up 0-1 after a winning the first game and losing the next two. I essentially used Blade of the Bloodchief terribly badly. If I had my time again I could easily have won the third match, but simply didn’t realise what I needed to do to win at the time.

The second deck went mono-black to maximise a turn 5 Mind Sludge. Here’s the decklist:

1 Vampire Lacerator
3 Guul Draz Vampire
1 Soul Stair Expedition
1 Trusty Machete

1 Grim Discovery
1 Blood Seeker
1 Gatekeeper of Malakir

2 Hideous End
1 Vampire Nighthawk
1 Giant Scorpion

2 Hagra Crocodile
1 Crypt Ripper
1 Bala Ged Thief
1 Heartstabber Mosquito
1 Nimana Sell-Sword

1 Bog Tatters
2 Mind Sludge

18 Swamp

Match 1: My first opponent was playing a WR deck, but it seemed far slower than your usual WR deck. G1 I managed a turn 3 kicked Gatekeeper, which really disturbed his tempo, and followed that up with a turn 5 Mind Sludge. This effectively forced him into topdeck mode, while I still had removal in hand. He conceded on Turn 6. G2 was much the same, though I felt a bit more pressure being on the draw. But another T3 Gatekeeper and a Turn 4 Hideous End / Guul Draz Vampire pretty much consolidated the win.

I had a large break between Matches having won so quickly, so I scouted out my opponents. One guy was playing a mean BG Landfall.Dec and had beaten his opponents essentially in Turn 4. Another was playing RG allies with some Baloth backup. I could probably nuke the Ally player, but would likely have trouble against the GB player due to his high prevelance of black creatures and double disfigures.

Match 2: My opponent was neither of the people I scouted, but instead playing a UW Eel deck. I won the roll in the first game and effectively ripped through him with a Mind Sludge on Turn 5. It was an pretty brutal moment – he’d just used a Narrow Escape to prevent his flyer from dying to my Hideous End by return it to his hand, then promptly losing everything to the Sludge. Game 2 was a lot closer. He had a Sky Drake Ruin and two Eels on the board, plus a Trusty Machete. He was on 3 life, and I had a Guul Draz Vampire ready to finish him off. I was sitting at 11 life. He needed a single land to pump both Eels for the win… but didn’t rip it, and he graciously conceded.

In between games I kept a careful eye on who was winning between Mr. Allies and Mr. BG Landfall. Mr. BG Landfall won. I knew my double Hideous Ends had very few targets in his deck, but that he had at least one himself that would be useless. I would have to come out fighting if I was to beat his adventuring gear. I also doubted my Mind Sludges would be much use, as he had generally dumped his hand by Turn 4 each game.

Match 3: G1 I have a perfect curve – Blood Seeker into kicked Gatekeeper into Nighthawk. Although he attempted a comeback, swinging in with a 9/9 Scute Mob at one point, Nighthawk’s lifegain effectively put me too far out of reach and I won G1. I did manage to Mind Sludge him for 1 – as I suspected, my sludges were too slow to catch his cards.

Knowing I had so few answers for many of his critters – double Crypt Ripper, Nimina Sell-Sword, Bala Ged Thief – I decided to sideboard in my blue cards. The advantage of this was that he’d likely taken out his Hideous End(s), so he’d have less removal for them.

My new deck looked like this:

1 Soul Stair Expedition
2 Kraken Hatchling
1 Trusty Machete
1 Guul Draz Vampire
1 Hedron Crab

1 Welkin Tern
1 Blood Seeker
1 Grim Discovery
1 Gatekeeper of Malakir

2 Paralyzing Grasp
1 Hideous End
1 Giant Scorpion
1 Vampire Nighthawk

1 Nimana Sell-Sword
1 Bala Ged Thief
2 Hagra Crocodile

1 Bog Tatters
1 Sky Ruin Drake
1 Whiplash Trap

1 Jwar Isle Refuge
10 Swamp
7 Island

As I said last week, “If both of you can attack, but only one of you can block, who has the advantage?”. My theory was that we were both equally aggressive, so anything that could slow my opponent down would be a good thing.

G2 I had a great starting hand. I went T1 Hatching, T2 Welkin Tern, then various forms of removal. He started with a Giant Scorpion in to a Crypt Ripper, but my Paralyzing Grasp stopped his Ripper cold. This was a perfect example of blue shutting black down in a way that black would of been unable to. By the time he’d dropped to 8 life he managed to Orin Reif Recluse my Tern, but I responded with a Grim Discovery, replayed it, and he promptly Burst Lightning’d it. I was left with a Hatchling and a Blood Seeker on the board, while he had a Scorpion, Recluse and the trapped Crypt Ripper.

He started wearing me down as I pulled land after land after land. He, on the other hand found his Adventuring gear, equipped the Recluse and started pounding in. Luckily, I found my Bog Tatters and put him on a Turn 2 clock. Unless he had removal, he was dead in the water. I knew he was carrying Harrow, so I started chump blocking the critter with the Adventuring Gear as I swung in with my Tatters. He didn’t have the removal and I pulled out the win.

I felt I’d done a number of things right this draft. Firstly, I took the time to scout out my opponent’s decks, giving me enough time to plan ahead. This allowed me to build a transformational sideboard for any deck faster than mine, or with creatures I could remove through Hideous End. My theory on the ability of ‘walls’ to slow down a race worked, with my opponent hitting me for 1 a turn, while I swung for 2. Over 5 turns this clearly makes a huge difference.

And, of course, it demonstrates the simple power of being in black in ZZZ draft.

Alternate Strategies in ZZZ Draft

As more and more is written about Zendikar limited, it appears there are a few bits of conventional wisdom that are doing the rounds (good summary in the first paragraph here). There are two I want to discuss today, and how you can take advantage of them.

1. Green is terrible (because it’s slow with no removal)
2. Don’t block, attack!

1. Green is terrible

Green is largely seen as the weakest colour in Zendikar Limited. Often when drafting, however, I can see the quality of cards being passed around from green and wish I had committed to green.

I agree that Green has a terrible end game. Often green gets stuck in a stalled situation, unable to attack profitably, unable to block well, and stuck missing all the intimidate/flying creatures that get past it. In one particularly memorable game I had a deck with Oracle, Nissa + 3 Chosen, and Oran-Reif Recluse and couldn’t break through my opponent’s walls until the final turn of extended time.

So I agree, mono-green is doomed. What to do about that? Essentially, draft a core green deck and plan to select some removal and finishers of any other colour.

Why run this strategy?

Green is the colour with the best ability to splash for other colours. A green deck can run Harrow, Khalni Heart Expedition, Lotus Cobra, Khalni Gem and Expedition Map, more than enough splash to run a two or three colour deck. If you can prioritize your ability to splash into other clours, running their bombs is less of a problem. This means being unafraid to grab both a Sorin and a Sphinx when you see them and run them both, or a Burst Lightning and a Hideous End.

With Green being ignored by the other players at the draft (and believe me, they will ignore it), you then have the luxury of drafting (a) the best Green cards and (b) the best bombs and removal you see. You’ll be simultaneously counter-drafting and building a better deck for yourself.

2. Don’t Block, Attack!

As a control fanatic from wayback this is the piece of advice I’m struggling with the most. It isn’t helped by my last draft, where I drafted a deck where I draft exactly one creature with a natural power greater than 2, and six creatures with toughness 3 or more.

It’s a fast format with a lot of aggressive 1 & 2 drops. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of this. For instance, a single Kraken Hatchling with a Spidersilk Net on it is nigh-on unkillable in this format. There are few bits of removal which will deal with it straight. And if your opponent is blowing their removal on your 1 drops, then where will it leave them once you start dropping your fatties?

In a game I played during my last draft I dropped 3 Kraken Hatchlings in turns 1-2, dropped a Windrider Eel on Turn 4, and had my opponent dead on Turn 7 with 20 life still on in hand, despite the Tuktuk Grunts and Worldqueller on the other side of the red zone. In a couple of games a single 1/3 Giant Scorpion held down the fort while my evasion creatures got to work. You know what doesn’t kill a Giant Scorpion? Anything with 2 power and most removal in the set.

In other words, I was effectively and consistently neutering my opponent’s ability to attack, while exploiting his inability to block. If both of you can attack, but only one of you can block, who has the advantage?

What’s it all mean?

Essentially, I think there are a couple of strategies to be tried:

* Treat green drafting as Shard drafting in ACR. Make sure you prioritise colour fixing and removal, then bombs, then any remaining green cards. Of course, you’re not restricted to a particular shard in ZZZ, any three colours will do.
* Don’t be afraid to try a ‘Wall’ strategy that then takes advantage of your opponents’ cheap creatures and unwillingness to block. If ZZZ drafts are a race, but only one of you can attack, then only one of you can win.

I dare you to try it out – let me know how it goes.

Noting the New

The Zendikar release has come and gone and so analysing and valuing cards within the set now brings diminishing returns.

However, with Worldwake and M11 around the corner, I thought it may be interesting to discuss a philosophy around discovering the new.
If you’ve read any Nassim Nicholas or Malcolm Gladwell (or even if you haven’t) you’ll understand the importance of being able to quickly and easily evaluate something new.
To demonstrate how this might work, I’m going to re-evaluate Zendikar, and use some mental shortcuts to help out. One particular shortcut will looking at Zendikar through the eyes of Johnny, Timmy and Spike, the Mark Rosewater pseudo-psychonanalysis of player types in Magic. And to make them super-shortcuts, I’m going to reduce Mark’s naunced analysis to Johnny = Combo, Timmy = Big Effects, Spike = Efficiency.

Johnny (Combo)

Johnny looks at a set and asks, “What can I do in this set that has never been done before?”. Here are the cards Johnny would take a long look at in Zendikar.

* The Landfall Mechanic, especially Lotus Cobra. What’s new? Getting a bonus for playing a land. Free Mana – no need to tap, sac, or pay to activate Lotus Cobra – is very new. COmbos with: Fastbond, Crucible of Worlds, Fetchlands, Harrow.
* Vampire Hexmage. What’s new? Removing counters is nothing new, but removing counters from any permantant at instant speed is. Combos with: Dark Depths, Mystic Rhemora
* Blood Tribute. What’s new? Instantly removing half your opponent’s life with a spell. Combos with: Sanguine Bond.
* Lolmage Mentor. What’s new? Producing a token when you counter a spell. Combos with: Stonybrook Schoolmaster and Grimoire Thief.
* Felidar Sovereign. What’s new? Alternative ‘Test of Endurance’ win condition on a creature. Combos with: Starting life totals in EDH.
* Iona, Shield of Emeria. What’s new? Denying your opponent the ability to cast spells on a creature. Combos with: Painter’s Servant.
* The Rare Tapped-Land Cycle. What’s new? Free turns from a land, free reanimation from a land, free counters from a land, free damage from a land. Combos with: Rings of Brighthearth (Magosi), Iona (Emeria), Persist creatures (Orin-Reif), Scapeshift (Valukut).

Timmy (Big Effects)

* Kicker Cards, especially Rite of Replication & Conquerer’s Pledge. What’s new? Getting huge amount of dudes at once from kicker. Bigger than: Clone & Martial Coup.
* Lorthos, the Freshmaker. What’s new? Tapping permanents for a cost is not new; tapping eight of them at once for eight mana is. Bigger than: Icy Manipulator.
* Gigantiform. What’s new? An enchantment that grabs another enchantment when cast. Bigger than: Wildsize.
* Armament Master. What’s new? A creature that pumps other creatures when equipped. Bigger than: Leonins.
* The new Planeswalkers. What’s new? By definition, almost every new Planeswalkers will have new effects. The Zen effects are particularly big and impressive. Every elf in my deck? Every instant and sorcery in my graveyard? I control your turn? Big effects.

Spike (Efficiency)

* Trap Cards, especially Mindbreak Trap. What’s new? A new subtype bringing alternative casting costs as little as zero. More efficient than: Any other counterspell when paid for using the alternative casting costs.
* The Quest Cycle, especially the Quest for the Gravelord. What’s new? Rewarding behaviour that would occur anyway (eg playing lands, killing creatures) – Gravelord is particularly appealing; a 1 mana 5/5 is about as efficient as you can get and has never been seen before. More efficient than: The suspend mechanic, the comparable mechanic of spending time rather than mana cost.
* The Ascension cycle, especially Pyromancer Ascension. What’s new: Free cards. That’s all Spike needs to know when looking at Pyromancer Ascension. Although spell copying has been done before (think Twincast, Wild Ricochet), they’ve never been as efficient as this. Spike has taken to heart the need for card advantage and free cards sounds perfect to him. More efficient than than: Twincast once activated.
* The one-mana creature cycle (Goblin Guide, Vampire Lacerator, Steppe Lynx, Scute Mob). What’s new? Their efficiency is unprecedented in Magic history. Spike is conflicted about Goblin Guide, due to the trade-off between card advantage and tempo advantage; only time will tell which will win out. More efficient than: any other 1 drops printed, ever.
* Bloodghast. What’s new? Endlessly recurring your creature at zero expense. More efficient than? Nether Shadow, Ichorid.
* Vampire Nighthawk. What’s new? Three good keywords on a 3 mana creature – flying, lifelink and deathtouch. More efficent than? Any other black 3 mana flyer.
* Goblin Ruinblaster. What’s new? Avalanche riders without the downside. More efficient than? Avalanche… Riders…?
* Gatekeeper of Malakir. What’s new? Cruel Edict on a CIP creature. More efficient than? Nekatraal.

While not every card listed will see constructed play (though I hope Lorthos makes some EDH player very happy one day), this techniques gives us a quick way of looking for the gems amongst a new set. When Worldwake becomes known, I will run this exercise again to demonstrate how we might quickly identify the must-have cards.

Considering Masters Edition Cards For Long Term Investment in MtGO

It is clear that WoTC have a long-term growth plan for MtGO. When there is a long-term growth plan in the economy you work within it allows you to plan accordingly.

WoTC have (non-explicitly) signalled their intention to release each of the post-6th Edition expansion sets beyond 6th Edition.

WoTC have also given no signal as to whether they will ever release the Alpha, Beta, Unlimited or Revised sets.

This means we can predict the rise and fall of certain card prices along the way.

The only complication to this are the various releases of the three Masters Edition sets, ME1, ME2 and ME3. Each of these sets included various high-value cards that will inevitably rise and fall on the release of each of the older sets.

There are as follows:

ME1:

* Hymn to Tourach (originally a Fallen Empires common)
* Pox (originally an 5ed and Ice Age rare)
* Force of Will (originally an Alliances uncommon)
* Sylvan Library (originally a 4ed and 5ed rare)
* Winter Orb (originally a 1ed to 5ed rare)

ME2:

* Necropotence (originally a 5ed and Ice Age rare)
* Imperial Seal (originally a Portal – Three Kingdoms rare)
* Mana Crypt
* Badlands (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* Savannah (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* Taiga (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* Tundra (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* Underground Sea (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)

ME3:

* Mind Twist (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* Mana Drain (originally a Legends uncommon)
* Land Tax (originally a Legends uncommon)
* Bayou (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* Bazaar of Baghdad (originally a Arabian Nights uncommon)
* Plateau (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* Scrubland (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale (originally a Legends rare)
* Tropical Island (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)
* VOlcanic Island (originally a 1ed to 3ed rare)

Some things to note:

* Each and every one of these is legal in Classic Constructed at MtGO, although several are restricted.
* A few of these cards have been ‘bumped’ from Uncommon to Rare within the ME sets.
* Each of these cards are considered ‘high value’ in paper magic, with tournament quality decks built around them at some point.
* Many of the cards come from the earliest days of paper magic. This means it may be some time until their respective sets are released online.

What you should expect:

* As the player base grows on MtGO the demand for these cards will grow. If WoTC continue to apply consistent pressure on increasing the player base inflation online will undoubtedly occur.
* As the ME packs continue to reduce in the marketplace, the price of the respective cards of that set will increase in value.
* When ME3 no longer continues to be sold in the MtGO store the prices will spike, then drop, then steadily increase.
* As subsequent sets come ‘online’ the cards will see a depreciation in value. How much will depend upon their original rarity. For instance, if Legends is released you may see a dramatic drop in the price of Mana Drain, but a small but noticible drop in The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale. The big one to watch will be the price of Force of Will.
* As sets are released, certain deck types (such as SmokeStack) will become viable in Classic as cards become available. This will increase the price of associated cards from the ME sets.

What this points towards are three key things:

* If you want to build a good MtGO inventory, now is the right time to do so, starting with the cards that were originally rares above, especially the rare lands. These will only go up over time.
* Purchasing the ‘originally uncommon’ cards is where the most risk and reward will be. The value of these cards will eventually bottom out. The skill will be in knowing when and still making money from them in the short term.
* Paying careful attention to the WoTC set release schedule will bring the biggest advantage in predicting the future rise and fall of these cards.